{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1f0be3d-d3fe-4f5f-9028-5c680d3d8233", "symbol": "600734", "name": "Fujian Start Group Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.337, "architecture_energy": 69.277, "architecture_maturity": 75.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.599, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 29.94, "upward_expansion": 13.51, "deceleration": 46.68, "rotation_down": 55.08, "downward_expansion": 86.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.671333, 1.703636, 1.932333, 2.364194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.71, "trend_reference": 3.02, "distance_from_trend": -0.433775, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.606474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.525853, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.248843, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.625, "excess_performance": -0.581796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.433775, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246507, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.525853, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086452, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.512488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01229, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.892099, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 180203106, "relative_activity": 0.605265, "balance": 0.892099, "dry_up": 0.61893, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11561, "annualized_volatility": 0.614127, "from_high_reference": -0.764138, "from_low_reference": 0.14 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.02, "fair_value_reference": 3.606474, "structural_low": 1.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.023196, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.010365, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.422969, "worst_return": -0.240566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.028866, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.050865, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.265625, "worst_return": -0.246637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.08061, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030541, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.505319, "worst_return": -0.097156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"direction": -70.366379, "energy": 68.199481, "activity_lines": [ 1.743333, 1.872727, 2.282571, 2.784796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.68, "volume": 205932063, "typical_volume": 318406298.6, "trend": 3.340333, "fair_value": 3.648077, "relative_strength": -52.15372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.081236, "energy": 68.827649, "activity_lines": [ 1.711333, 1.819273, 2.177524, 2.669118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.57, "volume": 175487918, "typical_volume": 306937661.3, "trend": 3.229667, "fair_value": 3.63359, "relative_strength": -55.152454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.417554, "energy": 89.029995, "activity_lines": [ 1.656667, 1.753818, 2.075762, 2.554903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 175463314, "typical_volume": 301359924.7, "trend": 3.116333, "fair_value": 3.619744, "relative_strength": -51.471223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.958106, "energy": 75.002151, "activity_lines": [ 1.661333, 1.721091, 1.996905, 2.454925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.71, "volume": 180203106, "typical_volume": 297725956.35, "trend": 3.02, "fair_value": 3.606474, "relative_strength": -51.248843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.33679, "energy": 69.276762, "activity_lines": [ 1.671333, 1.703636, 1.932333, 2.364194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }