{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f1f4a083-099b-4f39-b5b5-a7d375804a3a", "symbol": "600076", "name": "Kangxin New Materials Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.561, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.295, "architecture_energy": 60.181, "architecture_maturity": 20.15, "architecture_confidence": 86.089, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.76, "rotation_up": 11.3, "upward_expansion": 12.58, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 63.8, "downward_expansion": 83.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.938, 3.071273, 3.291143, 3.395914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.01, "trend_reference": 3.549, "distance_from_trend": -0.151874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.526795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.325407, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166205, "excess_performance": -0.123001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151874, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014483, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264293, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166205, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703205, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105360764, "relative_activity": 0.697321, "balance": 0.703205, "dry_up": 0.738885, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156146, "annualized_volatility": 0.609611, "from_high_reference": -0.362288, "from_low_reference": 0.30303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.549, "fair_value_reference": 2.526795, "structural_low": 2.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008427, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.419355, "median_excess_return": 0.003705, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.255319, "worst_return": -0.195767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.055, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.015127, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.577181, "worst_return": -0.21164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053341, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015883, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.362069, "worst_return": -0.348315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.85, "volume": 114208842, "typical_volume": 151529575.65, "trend": 3.589333, "fair_value": 2.5225, "relative_strength": -7.629407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.704851, "energy": 65.629334, "activity_lines": [ 3.149333, 3.326, 3.452, 3.526452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.66, "volume": 90993841, "typical_volume": 149145954.95, "trend": 3.573, "fair_value": 2.522821, "relative_strength": -14.960866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.835774, "energy": 69.596664, "activity_lines": [ 2.952667, 3.172182, 3.371381, 3.466495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.03, "volume": 135999758, "typical_volume": 150893905.65, "trend": 3.561, "fair_value": 2.525, "relative_strength": -3.846806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.811295, "energy": 63.575381, "activity_lines": [ 2.946667, 3.115091, 3.330952, 3.431462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.01, "volume": 105360764, "typical_volume": 151093682.9, "trend": 3.549, "fair_value": 2.526795, "relative_strength": -7.325407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.295486, "energy": 60.180822, "activity_lines": [ 2.938, 3.071273, 3.291143, 3.395914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }