{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f204f19e-427e-4e16-a384-68aeeeb203df", "symbol": "SUBC", "name": "Subsea 7 S.A.", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.193, "architecture_energy": 22.112, "architecture_maturity": 57.62, "architecture_confidence": 89.771, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.74, "rotation_up": 32.04, "upward_expansion": 59.95, "deceleration": 85.01, "rotation_down": 26.82, "downward_expansion": 18.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 324.253335, 327.516365, 323.197493, 310.358024 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 328.200012, "trend_reference": 289.968386, "distance_from_trend": 0.131848, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 183.470273, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.788846, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.506268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.400527, "excess_performance": 0.275533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131848, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.788846, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013739, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.205063, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032564, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.400527, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.528025, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1842544, "relative_activity": 1.072011, "balance": 0.528025, "dry_up": 1.028371, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072275, "annualized_volatility": 0.430237, "from_high_reference": -0.062286, "from_low_reference": 0.894328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 289.968386, "fair_value_reference": 183.470273, "structural_low": 229.915206, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018473, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013122, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.153149, "worst_return": -0.096823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.112382, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.109261, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.267744, "worst_return": -0.037877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.308504, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.274133, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.694615, "worst_return": -0.05607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06076, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103258, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048174, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.884659, "energy": 33.165356, "activity_lines": [ 327.960002, 329.54182, 320.708302, 305.433361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 315.799988, "volume": 2546904, "typical_volume": 1781028.9, "trend": 285.762304, "fair_value": 182.130419, "relative_strength": 17.213867, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.650758, "energy": 23.87652, "activity_lines": [ 323.746663, 327.447272, 321.524764, 307.620107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 328.200012, "volume": 1842544, "typical_volume": 1718774.2, "trend": 289.968386, "fair_value": 183.470273, "relative_strength": 20.506268, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.193267, "energy": 22.112052, "activity_lines": [ 324.253335, 327.516365, 323.197493, 310.358024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }