{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f20dc912-3edf-4c50-92dd-54f75e110c41", "symbol": "601788", "name": "Everbright Securities Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.733, "architecture_energy": 19.508, "architecture_maturity": 89.154, "architecture_confidence": 68.886, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.5, "rotation_up": 23.22, "upward_expansion": 12.62, "deceleration": 45.46, "rotation_down": 30.88, "downward_expansion": 57.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.651333, 14.628909, 14.63919, 14.91114 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.64, "trend_reference": 15.426667, "distance_from_trend": -0.050994, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.436839, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.109318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.907063, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126492, "excess_performance": -0.083288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050994, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065454, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.109318, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075847, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126492, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.400549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104357845, "relative_activity": 0.896773, "balance": 0.400549, "dry_up": 1.066139, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049706, "annualized_volatility": 0.169784, "from_high_reference": -0.319517, "from_low_reference": 0.063181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.426667, "fair_value_reference": 16.436839, "structural_low": 13.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.009253, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.00462, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.329585, "worst_return": -0.123309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000863, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01873, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.443009, "worst_return": -0.18325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043484, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054036, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.399363, "worst_return": -0.240346, "sufficient": true }, { 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.61, "volume": 150342603, "typical_volume": 111923185.7, "trend": 15.728667, "fair_value": 16.457058, "relative_strength": -9.575415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.215089, "energy": 19.942983, "activity_lines": [ 14.733333, 14.551273, 14.724381, 15.107677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.39, "volume": 148016112, "typical_volume": 114064883.7, "trend": 15.624, "fair_value": 16.449152, "relative_strength": -11.608509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.586403, "energy": 19.958838, "activity_lines": [ 14.648, 14.533273, 14.667238, 15.021312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.8, "volume": 93551541, "typical_volume": 115401423.8, "trend": 15.523667, "fair_value": 16.443509, "relative_strength": -8.971743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.155928, "energy": 17.422015, "activity_lines": [ 14.686, 14.6, 14.657667, 14.968151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.64, "volume": 104357845, "typical_volume": 116370372.0, "trend": 15.426667, "fair_value": 16.436839, "relative_strength": -11.907063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.732715, "energy": 19.507843, "activity_lines": [ 14.651333, 14.628909, 14.63919, 14.91114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }