{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f229c7e3-034c-4942-b02a-c7c29951fa64", "symbol": "MMCO", "name": "Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 94.766, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.22, "architecture_energy": 84.627, "architecture_maturity": 16.172, "architecture_confidence": 53.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.07, "rotation_up": 84.28, "upward_expansion": 97.02, "deceleration": 39.11, "rotation_down": 8.31, "downward_expansion": 19.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 162.095716, 157.352475, 151.264167, 150.296168 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 165.449997, "trend_reference": 150.115479, "distance_from_trend": 0.102151, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 177.288067, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066773, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.909052, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054153, "excess_performance": -0.120094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102151, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005632, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066773, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149306, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139091, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148833, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.136364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.136364, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041702, "annualized_volatility": 0.238018, "from_high_reference": -0.079363, "from_low_reference": 0.217887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 150.115479, "fair_value_reference": 177.288067, "structural_low": 135.850006, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009032, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019549, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.018065, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.063686, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.076461, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063686, "worst_return": 0.063686, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.101572, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.169033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101572, "worst_return": 0.101572, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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150.890142, 146.806569, 145.839172, 147.21024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 158.473175, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13.0, "trend": 149.476356, "fair_value": 177.336583, "relative_strength": -15.918008, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.755473, "energy": 57.801997, "activity_lines": [ 154.163078, 149.421295, 146.931844, 147.794701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 157.399994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.85, "trend": 149.529257, "fair_value": 177.298584, "relative_strength": -16.899076, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.881313, "energy": 62.488944, "activity_lines": [ 156.283409, 151.498658, 147.910326, 148.305904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 164.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.85, "trend": 149.87164, "fair_value": 177.293073, "relative_strength": -12.317242, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.333616, "energy": 73.286928, "activity_lines": [ 159.759245, 154.585112, 149.591668, 149.291113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 165.449997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.85, "trend": 150.115479, "fair_value": 177.288067, "relative_strength": -13.909052, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.220045, "energy": 84.627132, "activity_lines": [ 162.095716, 157.352475, 151.264167, 150.296168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }