{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f230d027-75de-404f-8094-b8231755a045",
    "symbol": "MTW",
    "name": "Manitowoc Company Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 88.022,
    "architecture_energy": 81.723,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.877,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.24,
        "rotation_up": 76.23,
        "upward_expansion": 87.83,
        "deceleration": 47.58,
        "rotation_down": 11.24,
        "downward_expansion": 19.17
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.426667,
        14.397091,
        13.573714,
        13.341763
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 18.81,
    "trend_reference": 13.255,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.419087,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.060769,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.559602,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 36.468982,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.251497,
    "excess_performance": 0.125872,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.419087,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043098,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.559602,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.500374,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.36469,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.384591,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.251497,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.880564,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2268386,
      "relative_activity": 1.890056,
      "balance": 2.880564,
      "dry_up": 1.168058,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.085511,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.611976,
      "from_high_reference": -0.05,
      "from_low_reference": 1.069307
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 13.255,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.060769,
      "structural_low": 11.06,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.00301,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.028264,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.387234,
        "worst_return": -0.257514,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.078024,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.081141,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.099291,
        "worst_return": -0.16486,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.089108,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034766,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.243972,
        "worst_return": -0.054732,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.169657,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.074167,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.175887,
        "worst_return": 0.163428,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.314211,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.108315,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.002004,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      {
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.127909,
        "energy": 17.955625,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 13.51,
        "volume": 746964,
        "typical_volume": 1191620.0,
        "trend": 12.497333,
        "fair_value": 12.418718,
        "relative_strength": 3.1151,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.229398,
        "energy": 26.208416,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.226,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 12.602,
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        "relative_strength": -1.990097,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.799843,
        "energy": 23.865696,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 12.2,
        "volume": 1022758,
        "typical_volume": 1214239.95,
        "trend": 12.648333,
        "fair_value": 12.383269,
        "relative_strength": -8.853463,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.439908,
        "energy": 13.501023,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 1238135,
        "typical_volume": 1242874.4,
        "trend": 12.652,
        "fair_value": 12.361603,
        "relative_strength": -14.079818,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -28.775385,
        "energy": 20.911657,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.437333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 11.83,
        "volume": 937021,
        "typical_volume": 1236972.5,
        "trend": 12.707333,
        "fair_value": 12.333718,
        "relative_strength": -13.18618,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -26.775185,
        "energy": 34.061771,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.121333,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 11.85,
        "volume": 1397817,
        "typical_volume": 1243509.3,
        "trend": 12.737667,
        "fair_value": 12.298333,
        "relative_strength": -10.571682,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.923752,
        "energy": 42.516692,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.921333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 12.46,
        "volume": 1348527,
        "typical_volume": 1258859.55,
        "trend": 12.782333,
        "fair_value": 12.264423,
        "relative_strength": -6.282192,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.14309,
        "energy": 49.827378,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.035333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 13.17,
        "volume": 1288901,
        "typical_volume": 1277870.65,
        "trend": 12.861333,
        "fair_value": 12.236474,
        "relative_strength": -1.683385,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -36.964354,
        "energy": 18.797353,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.431333,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 14.34,
        "volume": 1980348,
        "typical_volume": 1302932.0,
        "trend": 12.963333,
        "fair_value": 12.207692,
        "relative_strength": 9.718623,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.955815,
        "energy": 20.166408,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.152667,
          12.765455,
          12.713714,
          12.865226
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 12.52,
        "volume": 968939,
        "typical_volume": 1202478.85,
        "trend": 12.971667,
        "fair_value": 12.172949,
        "relative_strength": -5.832064,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 2.212483,
        "energy": 13.087907,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.082667,
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          12.680857,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 12.78,
        "volume": 1053709,
        "typical_volume": 1198403.35,
        "trend": 12.967333,
        "fair_value": 12.130962,
        "relative_strength": -4.73737,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 6.830392,
        "energy": 14.797002,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.053333,
          12.744909,
          12.681238,
          12.824258
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 13.03,
        "volume": 1102362,
        "typical_volume": 1189494.8,
        "trend": 12.966667,
        "fair_value": 12.095513,
        "relative_strength": -1.103905,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 7.330009,
        "energy": 12.350046,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.045333,
          12.825636,
          12.713429,
          12.828301
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 14.37,
        "volume": 1126043,
        "typical_volume": 1178035.4,
        "trend": 13.025,
        "fair_value": 12.073269,
        "relative_strength": 9.892788,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.134639,
        "energy": 23.118457,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.446,
          13.152,
          12.881429,
          12.918839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 13.85,
        "volume": 1110677,
        "typical_volume": 1170078.2,
        "trend": 13.079667,
        "fair_value": 12.049615,
        "relative_strength": 4.88806,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.116163,
        "energy": 29.618446,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.593333,
          13.344364,
          12.995333,
          12.972065
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 18.81,
        "volume": 2268386,
        "typical_volume": 1200168.9,
        "trend": 13.255,
        "fair_value": 12.060769,
        "relative_strength": 36.468982,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.021684,
        "energy": 81.723239,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.426667,
          14.397091,
          13.573714,
          13.341763
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}