{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f233c2e5-9eba-4c3f-b4a7-1d0dc2984548", "symbol": "PKY", "name": "Pathkey.AI Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.665, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.065, "architecture_energy": 37.11, "architecture_maturity": 49.53, "architecture_confidence": 52.621, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.61, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 19.46, "deceleration": 66.87, "rotation_down": 68.53, "downward_expansion": 44.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.032667, 0.041818, 0.043443, 0.040129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.031, "trend_reference": 0.035067, "distance_from_trend": -0.11597, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.02717, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.801447, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.55, "excess_performance": 0.486294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11597, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.388079, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.889122, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018014, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.255207, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.55, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.334753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25173163, "relative_activity": 1.447552, "balance": 0.334753, "dry_up": 1.409858, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.369727, "annualized_volatility": 1.260688, "from_high_reference": -0.569444, "from_low_reference": 1.352763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.035067, "fair_value_reference": 0.02717, "structural_low": 0.018, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.054644, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.047519, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.304348, "worst_return": -0.280129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.080479, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.086957, "worst_return": -0.378896, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.259249, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.352135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.095238, "worst_return": -0.42326, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.031, "volume": 7760865, "typical_volume": 16087826.8, "trend": 0.034167, "fair_value": 0.0274, "relative_strength": 8.478497, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.164343, "energy": 16.251234, "activity_lines": [ 0.043333, 0.048291, 0.045476, 0.040695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.029, "volume": 10652274, "typical_volume": 16475705.5, "trend": 0.0346, "fair_value": 0.027285, "relative_strength": -1.167558, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.371562, "energy": 24.427412, "activity_lines": [ 0.036267, 0.044782, 0.044376, 0.040361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.031, "volume": 25173163, "typical_volume": 17390164.4, "trend": 0.035067, "fair_value": 0.02717, "relative_strength": 1.801447, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.064577, "energy": 37.109675, "activity_lines": [ 0.032667, 0.041818, 0.043443, 0.040129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }