{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f24323b1-0c58-4d1d-bb34-ccc4d9b91e40", "symbol": "IPL", "name": "Investore Property Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.274, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.686, "architecture_energy": 27.809, "architecture_maturity": 6.45, "architecture_confidence": 43.1, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.19, "rotation_up": 48.85, "upward_expansion": 49.02, "deceleration": 33.27, "rotation_down": 26.99, "downward_expansion": 16.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.067667, 1.063182, 1.053987, 1.052303 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.05, "trend_reference": 1.05594, "distance_from_trend": -0.005626, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.048796, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001148, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.406891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007214, "excess_performance": -0.035488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02702, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001148, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030127, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003439, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007214, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.280879, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 781609, "relative_activity": 0.83739, "balance": 1.280879, "dry_up": 0.793195, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031417, "annualized_volatility": 0.186262, "from_high_reference": -0.18746, "from_low_reference": 0.055946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.05594, "fair_value_reference": 1.048796, "structural_low": 0.994369, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025785, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034454, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.059323, "worst_return": -0.095239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055001, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047628, "worst_return": -0.17789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058358, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.104802, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08145, "worst_return": -0.176929, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008696, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008547, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034482, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032258, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.103813, "volume": 329294, "typical_volume": 1233917.0, "trend": 1.188686, "fair_value": 1.399802, "relative_strength": -8.080894, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper 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"volume": 529577, "typical_volume": 1057492.15, "trend": 1.058135, "fair_value": 1.049731, "relative_strength": -5.401912, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.566364, "energy": 44.288041, "activity_lines": [ 1.074333, 1.064545, 1.053594, 1.052828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.05, "volume": 781609, "typical_volume": 933387.3, "trend": 1.05594, "fair_value": 1.048796, "relative_strength": -7.406891, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.685907, "energy": 27.809064, "activity_lines": [ 1.067667, 1.063182, 1.053987, 1.052303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }