{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f253a0d9-3841-495a-a540-37b96e315745", "symbol": "IN-FF1", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.781, "architecture_energy": 63.017, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 57.635, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.75, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.33, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.961333, 45.463818, 1150.232429, 1937.626043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 46.54, "trend_reference": 2841.967667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983624, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3750.211731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98759, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.822695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989096, "excess_performance": -1.017996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983624, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337444, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98759, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.080401, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.744047, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989096, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.802787, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 876974, "relative_activity": 1.369779, "balance": 1.802787, "dry_up": 1.174236, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.380351, "annualized_volatility": 6.34436, "from_high_reference": -0.989771, "from_low_reference": 0.074579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2841.967667, "fair_value_reference": 3750.211731, "structural_low": 43.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011884, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.023837, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.047209, "worst_return": -0.056818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.015018, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.142896, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043719, "worst_return": -0.013683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.099246, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.207509, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099246, "worst_return": 0.099246, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 3811.552179, "relative_strength": -98.927234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.993332, "energy": 81.565715, "activity_lines": [ 45.212, 507.071455, 1864.615857, 2534.678989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.55, "volume": 656253, "typical_volume": 645561.65, "trend": 3130.523, "fair_value": 3790.914679, "relative_strength": -98.932884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.632894, "energy": 67.551222, "activity_lines": [ 45.412, 275.296182, 1606.653286, 2326.301269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.8, "volume": 677251, "typical_volume": 629584.7, "trend": 2986.283, "fair_value": 3770.637756, "relative_strength": -98.869463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.226256, "energy": 66.906276, "activity_lines": [ 45.620667, 121.665455, 1368.530952, 2127.286882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.54, "volume": 876974, "typical_volume": 640230.5, "trend": 2841.967667, "fair_value": 3750.211731, "relative_strength": -98.822695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.780927, "energy": 63.01744, "activity_lines": [ 45.961333, 45.463818, 1150.232429, 1937.626043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }