{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f25674d2-c991-416f-87aa-940565e4905b", "symbol": "688215", "name": "Zhejiang Risun Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.615, "architecture_energy": 64.941, "architecture_maturity": 96.366, "architecture_confidence": 95.392, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 62.19, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.092, 37.371112, 42.17729, 47.751789 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.700001, "trend_reference": 55.548204, "distance_from_trend": -0.213296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.739293, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.502158, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.405927, "excess_performance": -0.362723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213296, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174996, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.29287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305022, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086039, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.405927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.621717, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11392814, "relative_activity": 2.0888, "balance": 0.621717, "dry_up": 1.360777, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120845, "annualized_volatility": 0.806389, "from_high_reference": -0.522352, "from_low_reference": 0.506897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.548204, "fair_value_reference": 34.739293, "structural_low": 29.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.028702, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018582, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.249505, "worst_return": -0.194942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.123027, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.058776, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.240476, "worst_return": -0.359171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.023844, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.029816, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.297917, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.263649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137472, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.292658, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044583, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", 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-89.674098, "energy": 95.293375, "activity_lines": [ 37.753334, 40.817969, 46.492377, 52.120366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.93, "volume": 8135809, "typical_volume": 4928223.9, "trend": 57.801204, "fair_value": 34.570279, "relative_strength": -49.710745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.677113, "energy": 94.277521, "activity_lines": [ 35.072667, 38.489911, 44.469396, 50.300805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.1, "volume": 5325429, "typical_volume": 5055228.75, "trend": 56.508538, "fair_value": 34.607886, "relative_strength": -49.406798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.105009, "energy": 92.325994, "activity_lines": [ 33.230667, 36.604685, 42.644509, 48.578147 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.700001, "volume": 11392814, "typical_volume": 5454238.65, "trend": 55.548204, "fair_value": 34.739293, "relative_strength": -30.502158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.615324, "energy": 64.940537, "activity_lines": [ 36.092, 37.371112, 42.17729, 47.751789 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }