{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f25d274a-eafb-4c4e-908e-0a7fb0c8d91b", "symbol": "SKYY", "name": "First Trust Cloud Computing ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.612, "architecture_energy": 77.175, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.058, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.02, "rotation_up": 70.35, "upward_expansion": 88.13, "deceleration": 51.04, "rotation_down": 17.71, "downward_expansion": 14.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.298001, 34.361273, 33.176048, 31.786237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.240002, "trend_reference": 30.298667, "distance_from_trend": 0.262102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.599359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.437629, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.178574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.421561, "excess_performance": 0.30114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.262102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022751, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.437629, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223324, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.091786, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182494, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.421561, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.163866, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1600, "relative_activity": 0.471281, "balance": 1.163866, "dry_up": 1.435935, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045422, "annualized_volatility": 0.343762, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.507292 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.298667, "fair_value_reference": 26.599359, "structural_low": 25.370001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.012341, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.00987, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.12445, "worst_return": -0.143519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.034252, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.029798, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.16492, "worst_return": -0.219957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.065502, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008385, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.272423, "worst_return": -0.200286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10297, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034941, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020877, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043287, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", 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33.369999, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 3675.0, "trend": 29.782667, "fair_value": 26.075128, "relative_strength": -2.578897, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.980224, "energy": 48.732914, "activity_lines": [ 32.816666, 32.831272, 31.086381, 30.234903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.779999, "volume": 8600, "typical_volume": 3845.0, "trend": 29.876333, "fair_value": 26.180449, "relative_strength": 1.528207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.803769, "energy": 59.285691, "activity_lines": [ 33.375332, 33.271454, 31.577333, 30.557312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.470001, "volume": 14800, "typical_volume": 4020.0, "trend": 29.922333, "fair_value": 26.277308, "relative_strength": -1.911025, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.322885, "energy": 53.204262, "activity_lines": [ 33.490666, 33.378909, 31.907047, 30.789161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.009998, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 3875.0, "trend": 29.929667, "fair_value": 26.364038, "relative_strength": -6.116144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.316819, "energy": 45.721662, "activity_lines": [ 33.094666, 33.170363, 32.062285, 30.923849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.130001, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 3770.0, "trend": 30.073333, "fair_value": 26.471218, "relative_strength": 3.592401, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.491067, "energy": 58.42463, "activity_lines": [ 33.802, 33.509818, 32.490762, 31.259355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.240002, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 3395.0, "trend": 30.298667, "fair_value": 26.599359, "relative_strength": 9.178574, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.612121, "energy": 77.174627, "activity_lines": [ 35.298001, 34.361273, 33.176048, 31.786237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }