{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2646019-31ef-4e6f-a44a-5cd0efd42d64", "symbol": "003035", "name": "China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency & Clean Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.378, "architecture_energy": 75.402, "architecture_maturity": 22.484, "architecture_confidence": 92.852, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.04, "rotation_up": 22.12, "upward_expansion": 18.48, "deceleration": 39.17, "rotation_down": 59.74, "downward_expansion": 91.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.479555, 5.590082, 6.193834, 6.624206 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.6, "trend_reference": 6.844002, "distance_from_trend": -0.181765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.181038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080864, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.666985, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.099678, "excess_performance": -0.107078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181765, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047988, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080864, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.432295, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243389, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099678, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703805, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137151342, "relative_activity": 0.48197, "balance": 0.703805, "dry_up": 0.695856, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098408, "annualized_volatility": 0.669957, "from_high_reference": -0.490909, "from_low_reference": 0.229918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.844002, "fair_value_reference": 5.181038, "structural_low": 5.111585, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.015911, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.00558, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.325342, "worst_return": -0.094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.029579, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.128713, "worst_return": -0.180511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043791, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070706, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.202703, "worst_return": -0.210862, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.757335, "fair_value": 5.206107, "relative_strength": -13.125194, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.78015, "energy": 77.685011, "activity_lines": [ 5.505628, 5.917722, 6.637501, 6.868056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.42, "volume": 347116931, "typical_volume": 368374597.4, "trend": 6.782335, "fair_value": 5.196367, "relative_strength": -8.358055, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.319001, "energy": 83.868746, "activity_lines": [ 5.426957, 5.756448, 6.462311, 6.781776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.55, "volume": 173175178, "typical_volume": 318501965.3, "trend": 6.810002, "fair_value": 5.187779, "relative_strength": -4.727695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.52542, "energy": 81.859659, "activity_lines": [ 5.436287, 5.655356, 6.315167, 6.70227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.6, "volume": 137151342, "typical_volume": 284564063.65, "trend": 6.844002, "fair_value": 5.181038, "relative_strength": -8.666985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.377502, "energy": 75.401559, "activity_lines": [ 5.479555, 5.590082, 6.193834, 6.624206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }