{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f269f8b5-7ea4-4691-a9ff-67959d7ed1dd", "symbol": "300059", "name": "East Money Information Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.486, "architecture_energy": 6.074, "architecture_maturity": 18.75, "architecture_confidence": 49.35, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.36, "rotation_up": 28.35, "upward_expansion": 31.19, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 28.25, "downward_expansion": 46.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.891334, 19.844909, 19.676377, 19.883177 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.98, "trend_reference": 20.502053, "distance_from_trend": -0.025463, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.059755, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.618869, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.115434, "excess_performance": -0.122834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025463, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062678, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050004, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136342, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.313762, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1278819558, "relative_activity": 1.02806, "balance": 0.313762, "dry_up": 1.206652, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068607, "annualized_volatility": 0.249527, "from_high_reference": -0.316088, "from_low_reference": 0.150259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.502053, "fair_value_reference": 19.059755, "structural_low": 17.370001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.026045, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.163917, "worst_return": -0.129258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.049409, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.052107, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.189474, "worst_return": -0.13504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.137308, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.123894, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016667, "worst_return": -0.191419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.289345, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.208206, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.110057, "worst_return": -0.348332, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100751, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.231134, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.23227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059415, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184099, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098582, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137168, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035178, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.150661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014213, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 15.961019, "volume": 2570599587, "typical_volume": 1270654837.45, "trend": 16.13936, "fair_value": 18.087598, "relative_strength": 1.467729, "stage": 4, "regime": 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19.628546, 19.620658, 20.051071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.4, "volume": 1658928251, "typical_volume": 1229916808.4, "trend": 20.715646, "fair_value": 18.98381, "relative_strength": -15.219025, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.101646, "energy": 15.05658, "activity_lines": [ 19.904, 19.618909, 19.588547, 19.958695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.17, "volume": 1313657980, "typical_volume": 1252245933.35, "trend": 20.604885, "fair_value": 19.021758, "relative_strength": -9.903258, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.505641, "energy": 6.65269, "activity_lines": [ 19.932667, 19.755273, 19.639545, 19.923492 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.98, "volume": 1278819558, "typical_volume": 1243915244.9, "trend": 20.502053, "fair_value": 19.059755, "relative_strength": -14.618869, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.486023, "energy": 6.074116, "activity_lines": [ 19.891334, 19.844909, 19.676377, 19.883177 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }