{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f26cd21a-c424-4993-adb6-6e8ef4ad6000", "symbol": "EKTR4", "name": "Elektro Redes S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.997, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.194, "architecture_energy": 29.797, "architecture_maturity": 12.629, "architecture_confidence": 69.748, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.96, "rotation_up": 52.2, "upward_expansion": 78.75, "deceleration": 56.18, "rotation_down": 21.68, "downward_expansion": 5.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.152, 39.067613, 38.706921, 38.506783 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.200001, "trend_reference": 38.290317, "distance_from_trend": -0.002359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.789581, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038337, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.450069, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.00535, "excess_performance": 0.062398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038337, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119388, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.168675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 700, "relative_activity": 0.324826, "balance": 0.168675, "dry_up": 0.278422, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02989, "annualized_volatility": 0.140724, "from_high_reference": -0.186909, "from_low_reference": 0.117881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.290317, "fair_value_reference": 36.789581, "structural_low": 35.845966, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.032913, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": 0.033373, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.14659, "worst_return": -0.069109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.072951, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.057184, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.210344, "worst_return": -0.057536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.161105, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.140328, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.320661, "worst_return": -0.171832, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -6.055079, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.319363, "energy": 68.399669, "activity_lines": [ 39.48, 38.954146, 38.573788, 38.410771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.82, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 2285.0, "trend": 38.308408, "fair_value": 36.718326, "relative_strength": -7.277983, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.909414, "energy": 63.502718, "activity_lines": [ 39.618, 39.171363, 38.720816, 38.513777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.200001, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 2155.0, "trend": 38.290317, "fair_value": 36.789581, "relative_strength": -7.450069, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.194145, "energy": 29.797324, "activity_lines": [ 39.152, 39.067613, 38.706921, 38.506783 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }