{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f277fbba-d65c-4edf-a28c-67efbd54a9d3", "symbol": "900947", "name": "Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.994, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.073, "architecture_energy": 17.279, "architecture_maturity": 77.95, "architecture_confidence": 77.541, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.26, "rotation_up": 35.47, "upward_expansion": 22.23, "deceleration": 40.14, "rotation_down": 24.6, "downward_expansion": 56.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.255191, 0.252844, 0.254425, 0.256848 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.258, "trend_reference": 0.261073, "distance_from_trend": -0.011771, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.230529, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.522911, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.051471, "excess_performance": -0.008267, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011771, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025136, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064137, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.533743, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5633197, "relative_activity": 0.90682, "balance": 0.533743, "dry_up": 0.798768, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033058, "annualized_volatility": 0.171715, "from_high_reference": -0.11645, "from_low_reference": 0.074472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.261073, "fair_value_reference": 0.230529, "structural_low": 0.240118, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.009358, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013498, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.047007, "worst_return": -0.10204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013983, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038596, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.04639, "worst_return": -0.118181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005155, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013734, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.009437, "worst_return": -0.21138, "sufficient": false }, { 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57.963109, "activity_lines": [ 0.249949, 0.252488, 0.256577, 0.259949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.247863, "volume": 7693122, "typical_volume": 6824041.5, "trend": 0.263467, "fair_value": 0.229654, "relative_strength": -8.737206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.662266, "energy": 41.092383, "activity_lines": [ 0.249348, 0.250967, 0.255434, 0.25889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.248, "volume": 4182958, "typical_volume": 6666527.3, "trend": 0.262528, "fair_value": 0.229819, "relative_strength": -2.737601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.246455, "energy": 39.352251, "activity_lines": [ 0.249135, 0.24989, 0.254418, 0.257892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.254, "volume": 4487384, "typical_volume": 6454957.1, "trend": 0.262053, "fair_value": 0.230052, "relative_strength": -1.431174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.395612, "energy": 29.508124, "activity_lines": [ 0.250526, 0.250251, 0.254103, 0.257342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.258, "volume": 5544348, "typical_volume": 6327283.5, "trend": 0.261613, "fair_value": 0.230293, "relative_strength": -0.095637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.576668, "energy": 20.212477, "activity_lines": [ 0.2531, 0.251556, 0.25424, 0.257081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.258, "volume": 5633197, "typical_volume": 6212034.65, "trend": 0.261073, "fair_value": 0.230529, "relative_strength": -2.522911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.073363, "energy": 17.279333, "activity_lines": [ 0.255191, 0.252844, 0.254425, 0.256848 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }