{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f278f089-ef86-4bde-9d95-b12aee06e24b", "symbol": "POOL", "name": "Pool Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.181, "architecture_energy": 16.299, "architecture_maturity": 26.265, "architecture_confidence": 64.948, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.33, "rotation_up": 31.04, "upward_expansion": 18.51, "deceleration": 39.66, "rotation_down": 21.94, "downward_expansion": 56.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 3538.8, 3541.099441, 3492.113471, 3559.288395 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3530.0, "trend_reference": 3736.048657, "distance_from_trend": -0.055151, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5754.415216, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.386558, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.805061, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.205471, "excess_performance": -0.150804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072012, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.386558, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019756, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208051, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149081, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.512, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.512, "dry_up": 0.290832, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031018, "annualized_volatility": 0.478333, "from_high_reference": -0.429786, "from_low_reference": 0.161184 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3736.048657, "fair_value_reference": 5754.415216, "structural_low": 3040.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010881, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.076563, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.080024, "worst_return": -0.06768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.008312, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.088152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072791, "worst_return": -0.270363, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.164483, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.283866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067783, "worst_return": -0.39675, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022134, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.040021, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00395, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063349, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058161, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.345666, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6449.324219, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16.45, "trend": 6213.631071, "fair_value": 7616.189585, "relative_strength": -5.531845, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": 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"trend": 3778.651034, "fair_value": 5791.835416, "relative_strength": -22.380983, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.678752, "energy": 23.532599, "activity_lines": [ 3581.231982, 3509.420526, 3491.864245, 3589.998129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3530.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 220.55, "trend": 3757.349845, "fair_value": 5773.128833, "relative_strength": -21.881478, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.946135, "energy": 17.093932, "activity_lines": [ 3560.67666, 3529.105438, 3491.599222, 3573.956127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3530.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 129.8, "trend": 3736.048657, "fair_value": 5754.415216, "relative_strength": -20.805061, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.180502, "energy": 16.299383, "activity_lines": [ 3538.8, 3541.099441, 3492.113471, 3559.288395 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }