{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f27a8045-3fd0-4f15-9722-ffa546ba8908", "symbol": "AAON", "name": "AAON Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 83.485, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.751, "architecture_energy": 49.973, "architecture_maturity": 43.123, "architecture_confidence": 87.332, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.31, "rotation_up": 14.16, "upward_expansion": 23.52, "deceleration": 52.62, "rotation_down": 71.0, "downward_expansion": 53.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.36, 106.881455, 113.991626, 110.352428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 94.83, "trend_reference": 105.546335, "distance_from_trend": -0.101532, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.696121, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.016229, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014598, "excess_performance": -0.202052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101532, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09757, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045579, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.577273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150162, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.447525, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014598, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.362009, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4957842, "relative_activity": 0.970392, "balance": 0.362009, "dry_up": 1.082854, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158992, "annualized_volatility": 0.764231, "from_high_reference": -0.369257, "from_low_reference": 0.536153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.546335, "fair_value_reference": 90.696121, "structural_low": 76.782104, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.041818, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.064208, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.438952, "worst_return": -0.340093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.082585, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.091943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.342212, "worst_return": -0.380943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.264875, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.147627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.792215, "worst_return": -0.371534, "sufficient": 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104.822704, "fair_value": 90.330108, "relative_strength": -3.095945, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.961234, "energy": 16.906945, "activity_lines": [ 109.568667, 117.485224, 117.600399, 112.035637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.06, "volume": 6975127, "typical_volume": 5097477.35, "trend": 105.157047, "fair_value": 90.48749, "relative_strength": -16.215066, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.471411, "energy": 32.480972, "activity_lines": [ 101.745333, 111.245716, 115.533941, 111.018689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.83, "volume": 4957842, "typical_volume": 5109110.1, "trend": 105.546335, "fair_value": 90.696121, "relative_strength": -15.016229, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.751113, "energy": 49.972534, "activity_lines": [ 98.36, 106.881455, 113.991626, 110.352428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }