{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f27abec4-30ab-435c-9ed6-0d0f64d08fbd", "symbol": "002694", "name": "Goody Science and Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.548, "architecture_energy": 57.116, "architecture_maturity": 93.41, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 22.69, "upward_expansion": 9.42, "deceleration": 54.12, "rotation_down": 58.56, "downward_expansion": 82.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.014667, 2.079091, 2.282667, 2.480989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.12, "trend_reference": 2.785333, "distance_from_trend": -0.23887, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.510064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.52994, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.082784, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.427027, "excess_performance": -0.434427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23887, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19785, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.52994, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.410828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007428, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.427027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.204273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19553997, "relative_activity": 0.490578, "balance": 0.204273, "dry_up": 0.595252, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127358, "annualized_volatility": 0.497369, "from_high_reference": -0.565574, "from_low_reference": 0.284848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.785333, "fair_value_reference": 4.510064, "structural_low": 1.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.035831, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.050965, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.158562, "worst_return": -0.23955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.110599, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.141263, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.309028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0358, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.304233, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.226519, "worst_return": -0.418006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -70.491013, "energy": 72.773497, "activity_lines": [ 2.192667, 2.296182, 2.518333, 2.72529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.03, "volume": 16437008, "typical_volume": 49229130.6, "trend": 2.973, "fair_value": 4.60609, "relative_strength": -44.852666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.873431, "energy": 68.265765, "activity_lines": [ 2.131333, 2.226909, 2.454048, 2.660602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.82, "volume": 37870116, "typical_volume": 46104875.0, "trend": 2.901, "fair_value": 4.575449, "relative_strength": -49.668879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.607949, "energy": 66.785496, "activity_lines": [ 2.020667, 2.136364, 2.375905, 2.586215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.99, "volume": 21043627, "typical_volume": 43567147.35, "trend": 2.84, "fair_value": 4.545449, "relative_strength": -42.949366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.330956, "energy": 61.751733, "activity_lines": [ 1.994, 2.090727, 2.320381, 2.527441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.12, "volume": 19553997, "typical_volume": 39859074.2, "trend": 2.785333, "fair_value": 4.510064, "relative_strength": -41.082784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.548138, "energy": 57.11588, "activity_lines": [ 2.014667, 2.079091, 2.282667, 2.480989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }