{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f27c7fe1-c7af-40d6-bb68-442533ff2fd9", "symbol": "4724", "name": "Meribank Biotech Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.29, "architecture_energy": 64.244, "architecture_maturity": 85.456, "architecture_confidence": 95.188, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 20.18, "upward_expansion": 12.05, "deceleration": 44.19, "rotation_down": 64.78, "downward_expansion": 87.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.961333, 9.357273, 10.346667, 11.263118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.55, "trend_reference": 12.479, "distance_from_trend": -0.314849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.633047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.666446, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.412659, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.426174, "excess_performance": -0.867547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.314849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151088, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.666446, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.604127, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112759, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.426174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.353672, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 415565, "relative_activity": 0.563538, "balance": 0.353672, "dry_up": 0.430733, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165632, "annualized_volatility": 0.395284, "from_high_reference": -0.654545, "from_low_reference": 0.009445 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.479, "fair_value_reference": 25.633047, "structural_low": 8.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.07377, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.11568, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.129852, "worst_return": -0.2275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.20679, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.227454, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.196923, "worst_return": -0.306738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.37963, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.392474, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.003077, "worst_return": -0.423759, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 9.592, 9.855273, 10.914952, 11.800194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.8, "volume": 287051, "typical_volume": 728178.45, "trend": 12.714, "fair_value": 25.835086, "relative_strength": -58.728082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.258849, "energy": 55.959936, "activity_lines": [ 9.273333, 9.597636, 10.629619, 11.531763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.55, "volume": 415565, "typical_volume": 737421.6, "trend": 12.479, "fair_value": 25.633047, "relative_strength": -60.412659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.289969, "energy": 64.243836, "activity_lines": [ 8.961333, 9.357273, 10.346667, 11.263118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }