{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f285324c-13e6-49c5-a816-177ad10e9e80", "symbol": "MML", "name": "MCLARENTI FPO [MML]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.445, "architecture_energy": 48.643, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.385, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 28.68, "upward_expansion": 7.76, "deceleration": 60.92, "rotation_down": 48.13, "downward_expansion": 81.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011933, 0.011982, 0.013026, 0.014616 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.017083, "distance_from_trend": -0.239024, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.033849, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.615936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.931467, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.35, "excess_performance": -0.413706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.239024, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240178, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.615936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.419315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031365, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.35, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.89628, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3927385, "relative_activity": 1.185357, "balance": 1.89628, "dry_up": 1.08844, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14497, "annualized_volatility": 0.609898, "from_high_reference": -0.711111, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.017083, "fair_value_reference": 0.033849, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.027027, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037753, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.012331, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09375, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.072481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.216216, "worst_return": -0.081633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 3676733.0, "trend": 0.01875, "fair_value": 0.034797, "relative_strength": -49.736078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.057429, "energy": 74.32902, "activity_lines": [ 0.011533, 0.012327, 0.013952, 0.015826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.011, "volume": 3706951, "typical_volume": 3647474.75, "trend": 0.018217, "fair_value": 0.034477, "relative_strength": -49.044898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.010456, "energy": 72.696205, "activity_lines": [ 0.0112, 0.011973, 0.013502, 0.015326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.012, "volume": 3635493, "typical_volume": 3317091.8, "trend": 0.017783, "fair_value": 0.034201, "relative_strength": -45.163413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.59172, "energy": 60.871602, "activity_lines": [ 0.0114, 0.011873, 0.01319, 0.014925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 3927385, "typical_volume": 3313251.0, "trend": 0.017083, "fair_value": 0.033849, "relative_strength": -41.931467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.445187, "energy": 48.643337, "activity_lines": [ 0.011933, 0.011982, 0.013026, 0.014616 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }