{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f28534e3-75c9-4b9a-8e8d-075ef98400b9", "symbol": "MPC", "name": "Madison Pacific Properties Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.948, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.03, "architecture_energy": 17.528, "architecture_maturity": 37.338, "architecture_confidence": 95.037, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.55, "rotation_up": 29.24, "upward_expansion": 18.26, "deceleration": 39.97, "rotation_down": 32.79, "downward_expansion": 63.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.906, 4.875273, 4.958, 4.966489 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.01, "trend_reference": 4.99956, "distance_from_trend": 0.002088, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.035092, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.182777, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037834, "excess_performance": -0.158255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002088, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022701, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004984, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050736, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047536, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037834, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.047619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.050251, "balance": 0.047619, "dry_up": 1.143216, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03209, "annualized_volatility": 0.240594, "from_high_reference": -0.104249, "from_low_reference": 0.155478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.99956, "fair_value_reference": 5.035092, "structural_low": 4.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.012146, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.000741, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.097479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.07551, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.057095, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.162465, "worst_return": -0.085179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.092338, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046925, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11428, "worst_return": 0.056643, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.250912, "energy": 16.414592, "activity_lines": [ 5.098, 5.147636, 5.063795, 5.072579 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 4.75, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 1605.0, "trend": 5.096725, "fair_value": 5.062987, "relative_strength": -17.457315, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.009397, "energy": 32.759486, "activity_lines": [ 4.970667, 5.077818, 5.037714, 5.04895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.75, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 1885.0, "trend": 5.076872, "fair_value": 5.05541, "relative_strength": -17.460273, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.933194, "energy": 46.520791, "activity_lines": [ 4.88, 5.009091, 5.01381, 5.026581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.75, "volume": 13000, "typical_volume": 2285.0, "trend": 5.057019, "fair_value": 5.048723, "relative_strength": -16.96016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.639621, "energy": 68.940609, "activity_lines": [ 4.802667, 4.944364, 4.991571, 5.005492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.75, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 2355.0, "trend": 5.037166, "fair_value": 5.042925, "relative_strength": -16.397065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.995128, "energy": 78.73178, "activity_lines": [ 4.76, 4.889636, 4.970048, 4.985685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.75, "volume": 6100, "typical_volume": 2660.0, "trend": 5.019623, "fair_value": 5.039352, "relative_strength": -16.205766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.816619, "energy": 78.195166, "activity_lines": [ 4.75, 4.844909, 4.949238, 4.967158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.01, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 2675.0, "trend": 5.010746, "fair_value": 5.037444, "relative_strength": -10.809868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.18439, "energy": 43.856778, "activity_lines": [ 4.836667, 4.857455, 4.953905, 4.966537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.01, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1990.0, "trend": 4.99956, "fair_value": 5.035092, "relative_strength": -13.182777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.029686, "energy": 17.52764, "activity_lines": [ 4.906, 4.875273, 4.958, 4.966489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }