{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f28703f8-a8e9-470b-bf79-2a68c32b54f9", "symbol": "CSP", "name": "CSP International Fashion Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.947, "architecture_energy": 54.899, "architecture_maturity": 11.805, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.86, "rotation_up": 14.38, "upward_expansion": 11.69, "deceleration": 39.03, "rotation_down": 62.99, "downward_expansion": 87.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.287667, 0.291418, 0.296705, 0.299135 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.287, "trend_reference": 0.301333, "distance_from_trend": -0.047566, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.30925, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.66423, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043333, "excess_performance": -0.214225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047566, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015787, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071948, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079693, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.174492, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54030, "relative_activity": 0.412098, "balance": 0.174492, "dry_up": 0.406767, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049585, "annualized_volatility": 0.156531, "from_high_reference": -0.165698, "from_low_reference": 0.028674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.301333, "fair_value_reference": 0.30925, "structural_low": 0.279, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.016667, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.387097, "median_excess_return": -0.013956, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.161871, "worst_return": -0.142077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.007559, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070827, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.172414, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004625, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.193666, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.134058, "worst_return": -0.147727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -16.271366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.171776, "energy": 41.040628, "activity_lines": [ 0.292933, 0.2952, 0.299976, 0.301376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.284, "volume": 62753, "typical_volume": 132732.55, "trend": 0.3023, "fair_value": 0.30975, "relative_strength": -18.64652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.767545, "energy": 61.152012, "activity_lines": [ 0.289133, 0.292873, 0.298143, 0.300123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.287, "volume": 54030, "typical_volume": 131109.45, "trend": 0.301333, "fair_value": 0.30925, "relative_strength": -19.66423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.947303, "energy": 54.898962, "activity_lines": [ 0.287667, 0.291418, 0.296705, 0.299135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }