{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f292c9cc-9504-4aab-92d0-5d3dac85d4ac", "symbol": "ALMDT", "name": "Median Technologies SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.301, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.483, "architecture_energy": 64.303, "architecture_maturity": 13.289, "architecture_confidence": 80.841, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.71, "rotation_up": 9.22, "upward_expansion": 14.01, "deceleration": 37.45, "rotation_down": 69.4, "downward_expansion": 87.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.164333, 4.390273, 4.645667, 4.691591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.165, "trend_reference": 4.712167, "distance_from_trend": -0.116118, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.751038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.416108, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026869, "excess_performance": -0.080181, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116118, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082883, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110359, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.465079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026869, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 460963, "relative_activity": 0.482582, "balance": 0.765242, "dry_up": 0.712976, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141195, "annualized_volatility": 0.579228, "from_high_reference": -0.427098, "from_low_reference": 1.122834 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.712167, "fair_value_reference": 3.751038, "structural_low": 3.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.159712, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052554, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.329721, "worst_return": -0.185099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.200813, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.201255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.145511, "worst_return": -0.256115, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.257547, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.250353, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.168345, "worst_return": -0.346749, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.215238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127072, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050536, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.258117, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.498329, "energy": 16.18768, "activity_lines": [ 4.898333, 4.998273, 4.925357, 4.850624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.625, "volume": 870153, "typical_volume": 1116219.0, "trend": 4.726, "fair_value": 3.771231, "relative_strength": 14.996327, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.267262, "energy": 12.963244, "activity_lines": [ 4.789333, 4.927455, 4.9025, 4.847247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.11, "volume": 832789, "typical_volume": 1051556.45, "trend": 4.733833, "fair_value": 3.764244, "relative_strength": 1.276687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.869657, "energy": 24.935756, "activity_lines": [ 4.551667, 4.766818, 4.831429, 4.807505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.025, "volume": 616727, "typical_volume": 997262.15, "trend": 4.72, "fair_value": 3.756263, "relative_strength": -2.155217, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.937242, "energy": 48.131133, "activity_lines": [ 4.331667, 4.604818, 4.75581, 4.761774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.18, "volume": 813663, "typical_volume": 974723.55, "trend": 4.712833, "fair_value": 3.753827, "relative_strength": -0.950518, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.641929, "energy": 52.489836, "activity_lines": [ 4.237, 4.487909, 4.700262, 4.726935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.165, "volume": 460963, "typical_volume": 955201.6, "trend": 4.712167, "fair_value": 3.751038, "relative_strength": -4.416108, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.482883, "energy": 64.303174, "activity_lines": [ 4.164333, 4.390273, 4.645667, 4.691591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }