{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2941fb3-e4ab-42bb-abaa-ea90eb5be345", "symbol": "MPA", "name": "BlackRock MuniYield Pennsylvania Quality Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.752, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.276, "architecture_energy": 38.437, "architecture_maturity": 6.498, "architecture_confidence": 76.126, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.78, "rotation_up": 12.7, "upward_expansion": 16.95, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 57.85, "downward_expansion": 68.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.039833, 11.120141, 11.16248, 11.158658 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.095, "trend_reference": 11.164447, "distance_from_trend": -0.00622, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.559015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.308538, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006048, "excess_performance": -0.131673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00622, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007486, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034906, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039734, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006048, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.504367, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81547, "relative_activity": 0.589804, "balance": 0.504367, "dry_up": 0.872093, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021126, "annualized_volatility": 0.091089, "from_high_reference": -0.061352, "from_low_reference": 0.093838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.164447, "fair_value_reference": 10.559015, "structural_low": 10.653947, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.012851, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.00521, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.060867, "worst_return": -0.080749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.024236, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.033615, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.063866, "worst_return": -0.208247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063291, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.040454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086797, "worst_return": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.143368, "energy": 24.587369, "activity_lines": [ 11.262317, 11.248455, 11.212653, 11.194228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.93, "volume": 125364, "typical_volume": 143715.45, "trend": 11.159961, "fair_value": 10.540785, "relative_strength": -7.976397, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.420912, "energy": 8.072436, "activity_lines": [ 11.152975, 11.192909, 11.190427, 11.179767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.9, "volume": 187975, "typical_volume": 143421.7, "trend": 11.162228, "fair_value": 10.548652, "relative_strength": -9.00421, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.124824, "energy": 30.591448, "activity_lines": [ 11.053147, 11.136681, 11.166625, 11.162995 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.095, "volume": 81547, "typical_volume": 138261.3, "trend": 11.164447, "fair_value": 10.559015, "relative_strength": -10.308538, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.276059, "energy": 38.437306, "activity_lines": [ 11.039833, 11.120141, 11.16248, 11.158658 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }