{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f297b880-42be-4b14-94c4-d540a70d35a0", "symbol": "BPAC3", "name": "Banco BTG Pactual S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.436, "architecture_energy": 56.589, "architecture_maturity": 83.019, "architecture_confidence": 90.162, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.37, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 9.72, "deceleration": 60.54, "rotation_down": 52.58, "downward_expansion": 83.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.366, 22.635091, 23.668619, 26.312925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.200001, "trend_reference": 30.474334, "distance_from_trend": -0.271518, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.974488, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058429, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.483812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.48989, "excess_performance": -0.432841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.271518, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09513, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058429, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274838, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.48989, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.104532, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56000, "relative_activity": 0.713285, "balance": 1.104532, "dry_up": 1.182015, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099792, "annualized_volatility": 0.459411, "from_high_reference": -0.526451, "from_low_reference": 0.046676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.474334, "fair_value_reference": 20.974488, "structural_low": 21.209999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.019875, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.305825, "worst_return": -0.253941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030764, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.079927, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.410234, "worst_return": -0.038009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022511, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031362, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.500334, "worst_return": -0.025605, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095995, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026031, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014537, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.168455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", 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49700, "typical_volume": 73250.0, "trend": 31.579, "fair_value": 20.882247, "relative_strength": -29.58467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.538105, "energy": 59.263477, "activity_lines": [ 23.004666, 23.059818, 24.432762, 27.492193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.12, "volume": 134500, "typical_volume": 78295.0, "trend": 31.019667, "fair_value": 20.927509, "relative_strength": -30.209088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.599204, "energy": 56.821263, "activity_lines": [ 22.646666, 22.797091, 24.006666, 26.881935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 56000, "typical_volume": 78510.0, "trend": 30.474334, "fair_value": 20.974488, "relative_strength": -27.483812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.436105, "energy": 56.588659, "activity_lines": [ 22.366, 22.635091, 23.668619, 26.312925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }