{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f29d645a-6d1b-4797-a864-a3ecd5266db5", "symbol": "300062", "name": "Ceepower Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.508, "architecture_energy": 24.133, "architecture_maturity": 92.137, "architecture_confidence": 86.751, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.6, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 15.97, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 30.93, "downward_expansion": 65.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.398667, 6.159091, 6.535524, 7.009269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.61, "trend_reference": 7.679, "distance_from_trend": -0.139211, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.137463, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076992, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.272156, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.239356, "excess_performance": -0.246755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139211, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126427, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076992, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152722, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.239356, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.769987, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 206532774, "relative_activity": 1.794089, "balance": 0.769987, "dry_up": 1.915054, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12836, "annualized_volatility": 0.52108, "from_high_reference": -0.469928, "from_low_reference": 0.296078 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.679, "fair_value_reference": 6.137463, "structural_low": 5.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.01444, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.020982, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.199637, "worst_return": -0.264916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.018182, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.036973, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.30564, "worst_return": -0.184591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003103, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.041059, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.281901, "worst_return": -0.195238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 5.710667, 6.185636, 6.883333, 7.414817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.43, "volume": 76267048, "typical_volume": 115341919.7, "trend": 7.951333, "fair_value": 6.138099, "relative_strength": -27.493779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.748699, "energy": 86.896816, "activity_lines": [ 5.581333, 5.96, 6.686571, 7.240645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.8, "volume": 228685757, "typical_volume": 113066805.55, "trend": 7.848667, "fair_value": 6.138657, "relative_strength": -9.611589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.472255, "energy": 53.026327, "activity_lines": [ 5.957333, 6.027091, 6.638143, 7.166366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.54, "volume": 370346793, "typical_volume": 112789449.25, "trend": 7.736333, "fair_value": 6.136272, "relative_strength": -11.761258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.136404, "energy": 37.31968, "activity_lines": [ 6.198667, 6.075636, 6.57719, 7.081935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.61, "volume": 206532774, "typical_volume": 115118469.65, "trend": 7.679, "fair_value": 6.137463, "relative_strength": -15.272156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.508058, "energy": 24.133028, "activity_lines": [ 6.398667, 6.159091, 6.535524, 7.009269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }