{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2a2acdc-594e-4495-8b0d-0132254484ac", "symbol": "GLDV", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Global Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.742, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.539, "architecture_energy": 82.327, "architecture_maturity": 37.036, "architecture_confidence": 72.248, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 78.82, "upward_expansion": 94.91, "deceleration": 43.91, "rotation_down": 10.0, "downward_expansion": 19.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.48143, 32.122453, 31.47853, 31.052694 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.525002, "trend_reference": 30.59894, "distance_from_trend": 0.062945, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.164182, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.197349, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.904504, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069588, "excess_performance": -0.013295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062945, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035357, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.197349, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059673, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069588, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.330329, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38046, "relative_activity": 1.620824, "balance": 1.330329, "dry_up": 1.451844, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018114, "annualized_volatility": 0.092476, "from_high_reference": -0.023393, "from_low_reference": 0.192714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.59894, "fair_value_reference": 27.164182, "structural_low": 28.476761, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.010734, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": 0.007273, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.080611, "worst_return": -0.068329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011857, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.015399, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.076628, "worst_return": -0.03881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048726, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.00812, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.069267, "worst_return": -0.032753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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26.924877, "relative_strength": -2.07103, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.049636, "energy": 82.547639, "activity_lines": [ 31.476952, 31.182998, 30.720419, 30.476866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.323093, "volume": 26638, "typical_volume": 20313.35, "trend": 30.24444, "fair_value": 26.984861, "relative_strength": -0.265194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.576621, "energy": 89.0301, "activity_lines": [ 31.766242, 31.442813, 30.907126, 30.61869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.860416, "volume": 37246, "typical_volume": 21364.75, "trend": 30.37804, "fair_value": 27.044156, "relative_strength": 1.517681, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.007244, "energy": 89.408129, "activity_lines": [ 32.176766, 31.759903, 31.135324, 30.787463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.466053, "volume": 34388, "typical_volume": 21866.7, "trend": 30.501938, "fair_value": 27.103697, "relative_strength": 0.212602, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.47333, "energy": 81.36959, "activity_lines": [ 32.343141, 31.953465, 31.31179, 30.922173 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.525002, "volume": 38046, "typical_volume": 23473.25, "trend": 30.59894, "fair_value": 27.164182, "relative_strength": -0.904504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.539464, "energy": 82.32699, "activity_lines": [ 32.48143, 32.122453, 31.47853, 31.052694 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }