{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2acb37f-2fcf-4585-adac-36dafb3c2916", "symbol": "002249", "name": "Zhongshan Broad-Ocean Motor Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.764, "architecture_energy": 57.761, "architecture_maturity": 52.089, "architecture_confidence": 83.817, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 16.71, "upward_expansion": 9.4, "deceleration": 50.3, "rotation_down": 62.46, "downward_expansion": 80.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.172667, 7.374, 7.9738, 8.415425 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.4, "trend_reference": 9.074402, "distance_from_trend": -0.184519, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.586797, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.361852, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288168, "excess_performance": -0.295568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184519, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101654, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12346, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.395975, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243619, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120595, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288168, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.055272, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 212821529, "relative_activity": 1.060519, "balance": 1.055272, "dry_up": 1.122245, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097495, "annualized_volatility": 0.421267, "from_high_reference": -0.439002, "from_low_reference": 0.162779 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.074402, "fair_value_reference": 6.586797, "structural_low": 6.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.012068, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.014988, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.173674, "worst_return": -0.175987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053061, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.04024, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.183376, "worst_return": -0.201728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008396, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.017157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.406735, "worst_return": -0.11571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -86.592969, "energy": 71.679312, "activity_lines": [ 7.372667, 7.789982, 8.381266, 8.819626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.79, "volume": 237522531, "typical_volume": 197864625.4, "trend": 9.28327, "fair_value": 6.556407, "relative_strength": -28.126515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.621333, "energy": 66.86481, "activity_lines": [ 7.11, 7.527091, 8.192878, 8.652028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.4, "volume": 216162843, "typical_volume": 199296287.0, "trend": 9.184066, "fair_value": 6.571255, "relative_strength": -20.430497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.023159, "energy": 61.388611, "activity_lines": [ 7.138667, 7.428364, 8.077701, 8.530526 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.4, "volume": 212821529, "typical_volume": 200676763.8, "trend": 9.074402, "fair_value": 6.586797, "relative_strength": -24.361852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.764397, "energy": 57.760702, "activity_lines": [ 7.172667, 7.374, 7.9738, 8.415425 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }