{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2b8c33b-e3ac-4fbd-870d-8b127fb9a1c8", "symbol": "SAU", "name": "St. Augustine Gold and Copper Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.564, "architecture_energy": 23.428, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.062, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.19, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 18.87, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 27.65, "downward_expansion": 55.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.199333, 0.197091, 0.199476, 0.21129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.2, "trend_reference": 0.239, "distance_from_trend": -0.16318, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.167051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.197237, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.787038, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.453755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16318, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195286, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.197237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.42787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004552, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.607826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55000, "relative_activity": 0.113225, "balance": 0.607826, "dry_up": 0.427783, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1, "annualized_volatility": 0.49724, "from_high_reference": -0.622642, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.239, "fair_value_reference": 0.167051, "structural_low": 0.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.018671, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 1.714286, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003385, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 6.0, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.214286, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.160307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.714286, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.3125, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.287471, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 2.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.243902, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.257143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.285714, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.08, "volume": 35300, "typical_volume": 497915.0, "trend": 0.07, "fair_value": 0.084551, "relative_strength": 17.758099, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.240392, "energy": 61.463721, "activity_lines": [ 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0.196182, 0.203524, 0.222645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.19, "volume": 443200, "typical_volume": 552520.0, "trend": 0.255333, "fair_value": 0.165705, "relative_strength": -46.00289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.628421, "energy": 28.38152, "activity_lines": [ 0.198, 0.195091, 0.201333, 0.217914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2, "volume": 114400, "typical_volume": 509395.0, "trend": 0.247333, "fair_value": 0.166346, "relative_strength": -41.905362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.111588, "energy": 25.302107, "activity_lines": [ 0.199333, 0.196, 0.200333, 0.214344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2, "volume": 55000, "typical_volume": 485760.0, "trend": 0.239, "fair_value": 0.167051, "relative_strength": -42.787038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.564004, "energy": 23.428461, "activity_lines": [ 0.199333, 0.197091, 0.199476, 0.21129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }