{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2bc7f45-d252-4cb1-b37d-f699590dc05d", "symbol": "IBIT", "name": "iShares Bitcoin Trust", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.543, "architecture_energy": 29.018, "architecture_maturity": 59.738, "architecture_confidence": 82.503, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.63, "rotation_up": 25.77, "upward_expansion": 15.6, "deceleration": 45.84, "rotation_down": 31.64, "downward_expansion": 60.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.302667, 35.894909, 37.68319, 38.552538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.8, "trend_reference": 40.184667, "distance_from_trend": -0.084228, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.223222, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203863, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.731794, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072581, "excess_performance": -0.260034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116843, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203863, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167384, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02809, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072581, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.632783, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172811427, "relative_activity": 0.836247, "balance": 0.632783, "dry_up": 0.878935, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077175, "annualized_volatility": 0.381049, "from_high_reference": -0.487608, "from_low_reference": 0.120585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.184667, "fair_value_reference": 46.223222, "structural_low": 32.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005289, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.003908, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.177005, "worst_return": -0.216888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.177026, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.244952, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.115544, "worst_return": -0.238509, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.326494, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.455333, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.326494, "worst_return": -0.326494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07463, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.103373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077914, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-12", "close": 24.97, "volume": 60700174, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-19", "close": 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41.105711, "activity_lines": [ 35.962, 35.974182, 38.264571, 39.158774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.64, "volume": 186596355, "typical_volume": 211783333.4, "trend": 40.663333, "fair_value": 46.293545, "relative_strength": -33.625997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.012824, "energy": 33.719157, "activity_lines": [ 35.998667, 35.762545, 37.907381, 38.801785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.8, "volume": 172811427, "typical_volume": 206651204.5, "trend": 40.184667, "fair_value": 46.223222, "relative_strength": -33.731794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.543007, "energy": 29.017834, "activity_lines": [ 36.302667, 35.894909, 37.68319, 38.552538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }