{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2c3e310-da31-477a-bc49-b790178ca8f4", "symbol": "300046", "name": "Tech Semiconductors Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.474, "architecture_energy": 82.205, "architecture_maturity": 61.979, "architecture_confidence": 84.791, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 8.31, "upward_expansion": 19.74, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 76.55, "downward_expansion": 93.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.928, 26.227615, 28.61319, 29.922292 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.780001, "trend_reference": 31.963287, "distance_from_trend": -0.224736, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.353556, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094085, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.949399, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.335657, "excess_performance": -0.343057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224736, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076047, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094085, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350324, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045336, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.335657, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.594743, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32870105, "relative_activity": 1.003604, "balance": 0.594743, "dry_up": 0.983207, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134364, "annualized_volatility": 0.477006, "from_high_reference": -0.51047, "from_low_reference": 0.166118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.963287, "fair_value_reference": 27.353556, "structural_low": 21.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.011869, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.018227, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.693858, "worst_return": -0.27918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.046291, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.020643, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.422924, "worst_return": -0.208045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.107545, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.054191, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.285842, "worst_return": -0.223448, 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"typical_volume": 33015629.6, "trend": 33.125287, "fair_value": 27.243311, "relative_strength": -35.752701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.403264, "energy": 53.514604, "activity_lines": [ 28.479787, 29.625775, 30.750884, 31.735552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.4, "volume": 33446832, "typical_volume": 33076367.55, "trend": 32.716287, "fair_value": 27.273566, "relative_strength": -38.119861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.089745, "energy": 83.11467, "activity_lines": [ 26.048667, 28.108361, 29.896414, 31.043598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.85, "volume": 28203886, "typical_volume": 33245263.0, "trend": 32.293954, "fair_value": 27.304025, "relative_strength": -34.904411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.023807, "energy": 86.263612, "activity_lines": [ 24.323334, 26.895491, 29.138278, 30.407064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.780001, "volume": 32870105, "typical_volume": 32752066.3, "trend": 31.963287, "fair_value": 27.353556, "relative_strength": -31.949399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.473566, "energy": 82.205034, "activity_lines": [ 23.928, 26.227615, 28.61319, 29.922292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }