{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2c9357c-c1a9-4ab4-a83d-ea4b83c7336d", "symbol": "IMA", "name": "ImageneBio, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.148, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.781, "architecture_energy": 21.136, "architecture_maturity": 26.074, "architecture_confidence": 71.542, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.56, "rotation_up": 14.39, "upward_expansion": 9.39, "deceleration": 54.85, "rotation_down": 50.39, "downward_expansion": 66.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.603333, 5.685818, 5.676597, 5.723534 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.69, "trend_reference": 5.93406, "distance_from_trend": -0.041129, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.044146, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.666161, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.690096, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.176556, "excess_performance": -0.364009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041129, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062583, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.666161, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100553, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296901, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250543, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.835588, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72931, "relative_activity": 0.065847, "balance": 1.835588, "dry_up": 0.056311, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109501, "annualized_volatility": 0.459431, "from_high_reference": -0.627262, "from_low_reference": 0.444162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.93406, "fair_value_reference": 17.044146, "structural_low": 3.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054545, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.02861, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.036765, "worst_return": -0.356338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.187879, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.093437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186275, "worst_return": -0.494485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.178126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.536765, "worst_return": -0.621324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.649584, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.981091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.627451, "worst_return": -0.671717, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.669399, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.314195, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.595843, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005917, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", 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"relative_strength": -31.81421, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.028078, "energy": 16.651019, "activity_lines": [ 5.658667, 5.732364, 5.673424, 5.772703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.54, "volume": 53593, "typical_volume": 1112547.65, "trend": 5.975727, "fair_value": 17.338441, "relative_strength": -30.187032, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.954032, "energy": 20.464704, "activity_lines": [ 5.59, 5.695273, 5.666987, 5.741968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.69, "volume": 72931, "typical_volume": 1107580.65, "trend": 5.93406, "fair_value": 17.044146, "relative_strength": -29.690096, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.781395, "energy": 21.135729, "activity_lines": [ 5.603333, 5.685818, 5.676597, 5.723534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }