{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2c9ba97-c9f3-4a34-9c56-52ef7d73ca30", "symbol": "SEPZ", "name": "TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (SEPTEMBER) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.459, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.847, "architecture_energy": 52.835, "architecture_maturity": 45.888, "architecture_confidence": 79.752, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.22, "rotation_up": 55.66, "upward_expansion": 80.34, "deceleration": 58.94, "rotation_down": 24.73, "downward_expansion": 7.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.702133, 45.447236, 45.120517, 44.415373 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.7525, "trend_reference": 43.6234, "distance_from_trend": 0.07173, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.457217, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248157, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.407201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099283, "excess_performance": -0.026342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07173, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248157, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005365, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024072, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002835, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099283, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.040079, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83838, "relative_activity": 1.693045, "balance": 2.040079, "dry_up": 0.809502, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021424, "annualized_volatility": 0.121142, "from_high_reference": -0.004264, "from_low_reference": 0.179839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.6234, "fair_value_reference": 37.457217, "structural_low": 39.71, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.010623, "positive_rate": 0.657143, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -0.003995, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.04641, "worst_return": -0.052245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.035207, "positive_rate": 0.916667, "directional_follow_through": 0.916667, "median_excess_return": -0.012187, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.096839, "worst_return": -0.040094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059944, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.02215, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.126051, "worst_return": -0.011548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"up", "direction": 51.860542, "energy": 39.248538, "activity_lines": [ 44.995633, 45.09574, 44.255716, 43.684032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 45.75, "volume": 35808, "typical_volume": 50454.15, "trend": 43.209173, "fair_value": 37.062806, "relative_strength": -2.514274, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.50467, "energy": 47.953128, "activity_lines": [ 45.242633, 45.225193, 44.47736, 43.85578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.2019, "volume": 25233, "typical_volume": 47584.65, "trend": 43.312823, "fair_value": 37.15873, "relative_strength": -2.089131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.734886, "energy": 41.70321, "activity_lines": [ 45.2536, 45.225355, 44.631376, 43.984343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.8719, "volume": 24157, "typical_volume": 47076.35, "trend": 43.389667, "fair_value": 37.251137, "relative_strength": -2.150785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.494313, "energy": 38.594349, "activity_lines": [ 45.146727, 45.160353, 44.739491, 44.084929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.25, "volume": 27115, "typical_volume": 46861.55, "trend": 43.490947, "fair_value": 37.349167, "relative_strength": -2.31309, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.266058, "energy": 39.899205, "activity_lines": [ 45.208347, 45.166413, 44.868321, 44.20495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.7525, "volume": 83838, "typical_volume": 49519.05, "trend": 43.6234, "fair_value": 37.457217, "relative_strength": -2.407201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.847157, "energy": 52.834735, "activity_lines": [ 45.702133, 45.447236, 45.120517, 44.415373 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }