{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2cafc85-73f2-4445-a9ba-c78c7863bcca", "symbol": "ARGX", "name": "argenx SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.427, "architecture_energy": 31.61, "architecture_maturity": 56.246, "architecture_confidence": 78.745, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.98, "rotation_up": 34.48, "upward_expansion": 64.15, "deceleration": 88.2, "rotation_down": 26.43, "downward_expansion": 16.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 771.706649, 777.054537, 754.699044, 731.016343 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 770.599976, "trend_reference": 709.320003, "distance_from_trend": 0.086393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 547.750642, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.406844, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.469915, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108458, "excess_performance": -0.065789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086393, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013546, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.406844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118882, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104699, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108458, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.566434, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22, "relative_activity": 0.497175, "balance": 4.566434, "dry_up": 2.949153, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054503, "annualized_volatility": 0.349163, "from_high_reference": -0.072237, "from_low_reference": 0.40929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 709.320003, "fair_value_reference": 547.750642, "structural_low": 570.799988, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.039276, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.032017, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.342075, "worst_return": -0.096029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.089844, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.133034, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.317291, "worst_return": -0.214009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057202, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.09169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143213, "worst_return": -0.096333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12513, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.162813, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149307, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", 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"energy": 55.043765, "activity_lines": [ 774.439998, 769.243637, 735.138097, 716.623229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 810.0, "volume": 376, "typical_volume": 41.6, "trend": 705.593339, "fair_value": 543.735258, "relative_strength": -3.277133, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.693319, "energy": 59.136578, "activity_lines": [ 784.973332, 779.04, 745.415239, 723.543659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 757.599976, "volume": 101, "typical_volume": 43.15, "trend": 706.780005, "fair_value": 545.710899, "relative_strength": -9.399747, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.135552, "energy": 34.256583, "activity_lines": [ 775.213322, 777.378177, 749.769523, 726.898926 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 770.599976, "volume": 22, "typical_volume": 44.25, "trend": 709.320003, "fair_value": 547.750642, "relative_strength": -10.469915, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.427025, "energy": 31.609786, "activity_lines": [ 771.706649, 777.054537, 754.699044, 731.016343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }