{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2d35d10-8819-45b2-bab5-31447f79d879", "symbol": "PAMC", "name": "PACER FDS TR LUNT MIDCAP MULTI FACTOR ALTERNATOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.393, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.17, "architecture_energy": 35.023, "architecture_maturity": 50.588, "architecture_confidence": 78.039, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.29, "rotation_up": 37.2, "upward_expansion": 63.74, "deceleration": 87.81, "rotation_down": 26.62, "downward_expansion": 16.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.30344, 54.36302, 53.889345, 52.891863 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 54.9021, "trend_reference": 51.688226, "distance_from_trend": 0.062178, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.231017, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.780348, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.080889, "excess_performance": -0.044736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062178, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053915, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241258, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008702, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022404, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.189986, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19704, "relative_activity": 0.777514, "balance": 0.189986, "dry_up": 0.580433, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026207, "annualized_volatility": 0.136428, "from_high_reference": -0.018763, "from_low_reference": 0.296595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.688226, "fair_value_reference": 44.231017, "structural_low": 45.863662, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.020309, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.002691, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.095751, "worst_return": -0.070906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041872, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.017519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167092, "worst_return": -0.179177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.122926, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.022262, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.272857, "worst_return": -0.056935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016618, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029738, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050781, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035064, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", 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52.849327, 51.876996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 54.1255, "volume": 8805, "typical_volume": 24032.4, "trend": 50.833252, "fair_value": 43.731907, "relative_strength": 0.469347, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.571846, "energy": 54.259881, "activity_lines": [ 54.53008, 54.303585, 53.090434, 52.104893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.7784, "volume": 12048, "typical_volume": 24368.5, "trend": 51.060951, "fair_value": 43.851754, "relative_strength": 1.344587, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.764754, "energy": 41.174105, "activity_lines": [ 54.21126, 54.268586, 53.283719, 52.294903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.47, "volume": 11260, "typical_volume": 24432.0, "trend": 51.292215, "fair_value": 43.976305, "relative_strength": 3.162265, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.310251, "energy": 36.150696, "activity_lines": [ 54.221567, 54.348385, 53.526273, 52.514841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.7372, "volume": 15826, "typical_volume": 24921.45, "trend": 51.503255, "fair_value": 44.099808, "relative_strength": 0.601471, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.954683, "energy": 29.465486, "activity_lines": [ 54.027347, 54.255118, 53.667616, 52.672582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.9021, "volume": 19704, "typical_volume": 25342.3, "trend": 51.688226, "fair_value": 44.231017, "relative_strength": -0.780348, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.169582, "energy": 35.023013, "activity_lines": [ 54.30344, 54.36302, 53.889345, 52.891863 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }