{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2d590e1-88cf-406b-9f12-dcf1927f21b8", "symbol": "GBT", "name": "Guerbet SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.056, "architecture_energy": 76.783, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.62, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 16.81, "upward_expansion": 17.68, "deceleration": 40.45, "rotation_down": 70.06, "downward_expansion": 93.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.338, 8.620182, 9.233667, 9.689269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.3, "trend_reference": 10.607, "distance_from_trend": -0.217498, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.953037, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.62192, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.386617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.389706, "excess_performance": -0.443017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217498, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162297, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.62192, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087803, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.403866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053221, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.389706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.370585, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68956, "relative_activity": 1.100051, "balance": 0.370585, "dry_up": 1.305697, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076089, "annualized_volatility": 0.619788, "from_high_reference": -0.640693, "from_low_reference": 0.117093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.607, "fair_value_reference": 21.953037, "structural_low": 7.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.013954, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.01799, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.277533, "worst_return": -0.320741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.038602, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.099344, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.404844, "worst_return": -0.346591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.217734, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.244399, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.245675, "worst_return": -0.374685, "sufficient": true }, { 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2527, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.186964, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113132, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.112927, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.255083, "active": 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"activity_lines": [ 8.944, 9.378909, 9.775429, 10.397505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.96, "volume": 57250, "typical_volume": 69092.5, "trend": 11.242667, "fair_value": 22.197942, "relative_strength": -36.828362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.692588, "energy": 78.343334, "activity_lines": [ 8.885333, 9.248545, 9.668286, 10.239226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.24, "volume": 104241, "typical_volume": 70954.3, "trend": 11.048, "fair_value": 22.114268, "relative_strength": -40.870677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.148537, "energy": 86.096247, "activity_lines": [ 8.654667, 9.016364, 9.513524, 10.045505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.05, "volume": 96940, "typical_volume": 67389.2, "trend": 10.823667, "fair_value": 22.031272, "relative_strength": -42.006798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.999693, "energy": 85.828968, "activity_lines": [ 8.426, 8.780364, 9.35981, 9.852086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.3, "volume": 68956, "typical_volume": 62684.35, "trend": 10.607, "fair_value": 21.953037, "relative_strength": -40.386617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.055803, "energy": 76.782682, "activity_lines": [ 8.338, 8.620182, 9.233667, 9.689269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }