{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2d7e25a-fcdd-4d2b-ac41-73321d0d8144", "symbol": "PPT", "name": "Putnam Premier Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.472, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.638, "architecture_energy": 30.691, "architecture_maturity": 23.233, "architecture_confidence": 90.099, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.76, "rotation_up": 20.99, "upward_expansion": 3.08, "deceleration": 51.17, "rotation_down": 45.43, "downward_expansion": 74.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.403435, 3.405072, 3.41679, 3.43082 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.43, "trend_reference": 3.452404, "distance_from_trend": -0.006489, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.187473, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076088, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.546136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032068, "excess_performance": -0.157693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002667, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076088, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033412, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032068, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.03638, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 714935, "relative_activity": 1.286101, "balance": 1.03638, "dry_up": 0.995684, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014132, "annualized_volatility": 0.105179, "from_high_reference": -0.03897, "from_low_reference": 0.018355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.452404, "fair_value_reference": 3.187473, "structural_low": 3.368735, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.002808, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.000602, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.063179, "worst_return": -0.031367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011193, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018313, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125087, "worst_return": -0.097937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034511, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.082309, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.099136, "worst_return": -0.124305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047496, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043304, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.06366, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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3.432455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.43, "volume": 714935, "typical_volume": 555893.5, "trend": 3.452404, "fair_value": 3.187473, "relative_strength": -11.546136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.637871, "energy": 30.691485, "activity_lines": [ 3.403435, 3.405072, 3.41679, 3.43082 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }