{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2d8b40b-4f13-47b3-8175-933f14f78530", "symbol": "GUTS", "name": "Fractyl Health, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.706, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.465, "architecture_energy": 12.117, "architecture_maturity": 23.928, "architecture_confidence": 46.824, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.84, "rotation_up": 23.39, "upward_expansion": 14.38, "deceleration": 56.61, "rotation_down": 41.71, "downward_expansion": 37.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.731313, 0.754667, 0.755993, 0.711576 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.6996, "trend_reference": 0.728477, "distance_from_trend": -0.03964, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.558358, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.726543, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.896047, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.685783, "excess_performance": 0.49833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03964, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328224, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.726543, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.41896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099892, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.685783, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.078807, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4628921, "relative_activity": 0.485336, "balance": 2.078807, "dry_up": 1.070601, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.224326, "annualized_volatility": 0.687511, "from_high_reference": -0.713865, "from_low_reference": 0.854719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.728477, "fair_value_reference": 2.558358, "structural_low": 0.387, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031703, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.013788, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.777778, "worst_return": -0.056274, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.239281, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.271084, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.144165, "worst_return": -0.622727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.568338, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.632014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.568338, "worst_return": -0.568338, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.773, "volume": 11000804, "typical_volume": 9777833.8, "trend": 0.82399, "fair_value": 2.587066, "relative_strength": -34.428165, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.34117, "energy": 7.461754, "activity_lines": [ 0.78334, 0.789144, 0.756207, 0.725203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.685, "volume": 6979315, "typical_volume": 9660182.1, "trend": 0.771823, "fair_value": 2.572547, "relative_strength": -40.698597, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.142543, "energy": 12.762279, "activity_lines": [ 0.75296, 0.768536, 0.755928, 0.716236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6996, "volume": 4628921, "typical_volume": 9537561.65, "trend": 0.728477, "fair_value": 2.558358, "relative_strength": -41.896047, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.46499, "energy": 12.11715, "activity_lines": [ 0.731313, 0.754667, 0.755993, 0.711576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }