{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2eadde6-ae09-4028-bd08-174162ac732f", "symbol": "TWPC", "name": "Thai Wah Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.534, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.582, "architecture_energy": 15.593, "architecture_maturity": 43.756, "architecture_confidence": 79.125, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.65, "rotation_up": 28.14, "upward_expansion": 55.37, "deceleration": 85.7, "rotation_down": 26.13, "downward_expansion": 16.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.856, 2.865091, 2.857324, 2.840069 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.86, "trend_reference": 2.822578, "distance_from_trend": 0.013258, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.89367, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011636, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.995604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.026853, "excess_performance": -0.165472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013258, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015466, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011636, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056277, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044913, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026853, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.273761, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3022300, "relative_activity": 3.678957, "balance": 2.273761, "dry_up": 1.983451, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027972, "annualized_volatility": 0.162622, "from_high_reference": -0.092112, "from_low_reference": 0.365998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.822578, "fair_value_reference": 2.89367, "structural_low": 2.612333, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.010643, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.006855, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.18254, "worst_return": -0.132353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00409, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.112415, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.348214, "worst_return": -0.183824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.131456, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.11055, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.258929, "worst_return": -0.136, 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2.9134, "relative_strength": -8.610498, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.080838, "energy": 38.867684, "activity_lines": [ 2.885333, 2.88, 2.851277, 2.834075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.84, "volume": 1696000, "typical_volume": 660585.0, "trend": 2.816337, "fair_value": 2.906312, "relative_strength": -10.170509, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.745149, "energy": 25.203486, "activity_lines": [ 2.872, 2.873455, 2.853315, 2.835843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.84, "volume": 1169800, "typical_volume": 698610.0, "trend": 2.818164, "fair_value": 2.899459, "relative_strength": -9.182505, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.481555, "energy": 17.007268, "activity_lines": [ 2.86, 2.867273, 2.854726, 2.83737 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.86, "volume": 3022300, "typical_volume": 821510.0, "trend": 2.822578, "fair_value": 2.89367, "relative_strength": -7.995604, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.581851, "energy": 15.593295, "activity_lines": [ 2.856, 2.865091, 2.857324, 2.840069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }