{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2ed9b74-b557-443e-bd18-46dd22a8bbf6", "symbol": "X1YL34", "name": "Xylem Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.981, "architecture_energy": 18.197, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.819, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.39, "rotation_up": 28.8, "upward_expansion": 26.99, "deceleration": 50.17, "rotation_down": 27.6, "downward_expansion": 51.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 301.947335, 301.091456, 301.036401, 307.843511 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 297.720001, "trend_reference": 320.043642, "distance_from_trend": -0.069752, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 322.259162, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076147, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.021576, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.186399, "excess_performance": -0.129351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069752, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064221, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076147, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160216, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071638, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186399, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.171915, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.171915, "dry_up": 1.294363, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034119, "annualized_volatility": 0.30533, "from_high_reference": -0.186819, "from_low_reference": 0.101347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 320.043642, "fair_value_reference": 322.259162, "structural_low": 270.323608, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016057, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.074355, "worst_return": -0.197786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003507, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.029714, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.343924, "worst_return": -0.197786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072904, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028895, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.486954, "worst_return": -0.194972, "sufficient": true 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313.311875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 318.0, "volume": 445, "typical_volume": 146.6, "trend": 326.483566, "fair_value": 321.373236, "relative_strength": -13.335485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.586617, "energy": 36.228382, "activity_lines": [ 306.983333, 298.719118, 303.796067, 312.665883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 303.0, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 146.6, "trend": 324.454258, "fair_value": 321.656633, "relative_strength": -16.842489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.877257, "energy": 35.892977, "activity_lines": [ 307.194, 300.031494, 303.056821, 311.150814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 297.720001, "volume": 421, "typical_volume": 167.65, "trend": 322.24895, "fair_value": 321.906183, "relative_strength": -19.319801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.98652, "energy": 27.478669, "activity_lines": [ 304.811334, 300.740547, 301.960932, 309.426023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 297.720001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 167.65, "trend": 320.043642, "fair_value": 322.259162, "relative_strength": -16.021576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.981024, "energy": 18.19712, "activity_lines": [ 301.947335, 301.091456, 301.036401, 307.843511 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }