{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2f36448-d8f7-4a9b-a51a-565be1da6fb1", "symbol": "UPF", "name": "Union Pioneer Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.221, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.251, "architecture_energy": 20.157, "architecture_maturity": 31.817, "architecture_confidence": 60.466, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.24, "rotation_up": 14.42, "upward_expansion": 13.51, "deceleration": 59.39, "rotation_down": 52.62, "downward_expansion": 63.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.3, 21.36, 21.39381, 21.370108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.200001, "trend_reference": 21.546667, "distance_from_trend": -0.016089, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.377958, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27837, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.237291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.078261, "excess_performance": -0.270586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016089, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035008, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27837, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052225, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052125, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.673077, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300, "relative_activity": 0.097879, "balance": 2.673077, "dry_up": 0.179445, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035922, "annualized_volatility": 0.209749, "from_high_reference": -0.3375, "from_low_reference": 0.11579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.546667, "fair_value_reference": 29.377958, "structural_low": 19.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.007491, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.011072, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.085821, "worst_return": -0.076172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007547, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024823, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.050229, "worst_return": -0.155963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.119853, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.086712, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.026415, "worst_return": -0.236697, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-05-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.295238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006536, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.165364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093578, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.120482, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045045, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 44.100426, "volume": 5700, "typical_volume": 6060.0, "trend": 48.721994, "fair_value": 51.804261, "relative_strength": -7.016729, "stage": 4, "regime": 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21.753333, 21.618182, 21.338571, 21.579785 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 22.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5640.0, "trend": 21.991667, "fair_value": 30.255317, "relative_strength": -19.553251, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.98757, "energy": 10.52868, "activity_lines": [ 21.806667, 21.738182, 21.39381, 21.576882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.0, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 5070.0, "trend": 21.85, "fair_value": 30.098215, "relative_strength": -25.601776, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.054167, "energy": 19.669674, "activity_lines": [ 21.52, 21.650909, 21.358571, 21.512903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.5, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 4700.0, "trend": 21.8, "fair_value": 29.951836, "relative_strength": -23.421635, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.500952, "energy": 18.301009, "activity_lines": [ 21.48, 21.638182, 21.375714, 21.490323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 4710.0, "trend": 21.733333, "fair_value": 29.807849, "relative_strength": -26.293718, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.448988, "energy": 28.923304, "activity_lines": [ 21.193334, 21.458182, 21.322381, 21.419355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 4545.0, "trend": 21.693333, "fair_value": 29.670912, "relative_strength": -21.905203, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.080819, "energy": 16.986179, "activity_lines": [ 21.353333, 21.483636, 21.381429, 21.423656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.299999, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 3995.0, "trend": 21.636667, "fair_value": 29.53077, "relative_strength": -22.126766, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.805482, "energy": 17.140821, "activity_lines": [ 21.32, 21.425454, 21.393809, 21.398279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.200001, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 3065.0, "trend": 21.546667, "fair_value": 29.377958, "relative_strength": -21.237291, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.2513, "energy": 20.156666, "activity_lines": [ 21.3, 21.36, 21.39381, 21.370108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }