{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2f4d024-37cb-4d8b-876f-50840701a288", "symbol": "JPHC", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi JPX-Nikkei 400", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.581, "architecture_energy": 29.686, "architecture_maturity": 61.435, "architecture_confidence": 92.575, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.04, "rotation_up": 34.68, "upward_expansion": 61.68, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 27.48, "downward_expansion": 20.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 202.73221, 203.334864, 201.270265, 198.158615 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 205.055206, "trend_reference": 194.285556, "distance_from_trend": 0.055432, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 148.404853, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.381728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.629228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.078502, "excess_performance": 0.025191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055432, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059405, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.381728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056292, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.822469, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 299, "relative_activity": 0.356334, "balance": 2.822469, "dry_up": 0.38434, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024262, "annualized_volatility": 0.169612, "from_high_reference": -0.014348, "from_low_reference": 0.339992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 194.285556, "fair_value_reference": 148.404853, "structural_low": 180.524704, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.016683, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.021248, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.066957, "worst_return": -0.083985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015499, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.035493, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.129928, "worst_return": -0.087713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078536, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.03115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208109, "worst_return": -0.039711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028264, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017374, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073162, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, 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"energy": 51.757341, "activity_lines": [ 204.093491, 203.304551, 199.358772, 196.189327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 202.241104, "volume": 371, "typical_volume": 845.4, "trend": 192.471966, "fair_value": 147.226643, "relative_strength": 9.228049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.866337, "energy": 43.544063, "activity_lines": [ 203.209559, 203.316155, 200.047941, 196.88356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 200.554306, "volume": 48, "typical_volume": 844.35, "trend": 193.374196, "fair_value": 147.805434, "relative_strength": 6.207547, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.08816, "energy": 31.354917, "activity_lines": [ 202.149961, 202.937181, 200.483886, 197.405001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 205.055206, "volume": 299, "typical_volume": 839.1, "trend": 194.285556, "fair_value": 148.404853, "relative_strength": 5.629228, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.580995, "energy": 29.685778, "activity_lines": [ 202.73221, 203.334864, 201.270265, 198.158615 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }