{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f2ff8f2f-0a12-4681-a220-20de482e428d", "symbol": "002152", "name": "GRG Banking Equipment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.519, "architecture_energy": 30.582, "architecture_maturity": 95.056, "architecture_confidence": 85.795, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.78, "rotation_up": 26.7, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 33.87, "downward_expansion": 63.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.045333, 9.919273, 10.255849, 10.719265 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.21, "trend_reference": 11.406903, "distance_from_trend": -0.104928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.437344, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10731, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.077958, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.193149, "excess_performance": -0.200549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104928, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10731, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142643, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05278, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.193149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.483599, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152048523, "relative_activity": 1.35215, "balance": 0.483599, "dry_up": 1.711044, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075613, "annualized_volatility": 0.301796, "from_high_reference": -0.301627, "from_low_reference": 0.118291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.406903, "fair_value_reference": 11.437344, "structural_low": 9.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.032397, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.0102, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.134247, "worst_return": -0.111324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042621, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035705, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.437299, "worst_return": -0.147998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022505, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.000856, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.170103, "worst_return": -0.22722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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11.658162, "fair_value": 11.45208, "relative_strength": -19.931164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.060154, "energy": 55.495873, "activity_lines": [ 9.823333, 9.922923, 10.500203, 11.024969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.56, "volume": 231797736, "typical_volume": 110724094.65, "trend": 11.577405, "fair_value": 11.444246, "relative_strength": -21.844877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.152827, "energy": 51.277789, "activity_lines": [ 9.755333, 9.816809, 10.362142, 10.889604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.24, "volume": 165990481, "typical_volume": 112034835.6, "trend": 11.512851, "fair_value": 11.439872, "relative_strength": -14.26617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.732478, "energy": 34.130008, "activity_lines": [ 9.938, 9.863636, 10.304606, 10.80332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.21, "volume": 152048523, "typical_volume": 112449489.7, "trend": 11.406903, "fair_value": 11.437344, "relative_strength": -18.077958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.51883, "energy": 30.581823, "activity_lines": [ 10.045333, 9.919273, 10.255849, 10.719265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }