{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f300f0dc-2e73-42ef-9ffa-0f80ab570888", "symbol": "603968", "name": "Nantong Acetic Acid Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.441, "architecture_energy": 48.002, "architecture_maturity": 57.396, "architecture_confidence": 87.649, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 26.22, "upward_expansion": 7.73, "deceleration": 60.23, "rotation_down": 50.13, "downward_expansion": 81.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.578, 9.608727, 10.334143, 11.073978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.07, "trend_reference": 11.828, "distance_from_trend": -0.14863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.62234, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.133565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.806366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165008, "excess_performance": -0.121804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14863, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048533, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.133565, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148373, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148064, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073671, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165008, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.038859, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15678321, "relative_activity": 0.666111, "balance": 1.038859, "dry_up": 0.633846, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104881, "annualized_volatility": 0.512089, "from_high_reference": -0.432676, "from_low_reference": 0.165509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.828, "fair_value_reference": 11.62234, "structural_low": 8.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.02218, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.009767, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.223051, "worst_return": -0.201945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.027729, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.061459, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.163832, "worst_return": -0.231586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.106741, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.093934, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.335, "worst_return": -0.341626, "sufficient": true }, { 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11.817804, "relative_strength": -23.928105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.821727, "energy": 86.673183, "activity_lines": [ 9.621333, 10.258364, 11.139143, 11.709097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.3, "volume": 13449400, "typical_volume": 29140889.5, "trend": 11.988667, "fair_value": 11.76688, "relative_strength": -19.142942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.75042, "energy": 86.137578, "activity_lines": [ 9.441333, 9.986727, 10.876143, 11.532559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.98, "volume": 16280800, "typical_volume": 26271655.7, "trend": 11.914667, "fair_value": 11.71434, "relative_strength": -22.448409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.159331, "energy": 81.438737, "activity_lines": [ 9.258, 9.711818, 10.614667, 11.338452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.61, "volume": 14267028, "typical_volume": 24583562.1, "trend": 11.864667, "fair_value": 11.66671, "relative_strength": -16.905541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.712504, "energy": 57.309907, "activity_lines": [ 9.348667, 9.601818, 10.440667, 11.189763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.07, "volume": 15678321, "typical_volume": 23537098.15, "trend": 11.828, "fair_value": 11.62234, "relative_strength": -14.806366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.440985, "energy": 48.002136, "activity_lines": [ 9.578, 9.608727, 10.334143, 11.073978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }