{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f302bded-174d-4f89-94a0-57138f9657d2", "symbol": "SYSR", "name": "Systemair AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 60.93, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.291, "architecture_energy": 43.068, "architecture_maturity": 16.309, "architecture_confidence": 50.167, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.71, "rotation_up": 60.37, "upward_expansion": 56.54, "deceleration": 27.05, "rotation_down": 22.94, "downward_expansion": 14.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.746667, 82.654546, 80.062857, 78.93871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 85.5, "trend_reference": 79.25, "distance_from_trend": 0.078864, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 78.866543, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08411, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.989138, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.023973, "excess_performance": -0.085467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078864, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003354, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08411, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172939, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163533, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023973, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.542648, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 457714, "relative_activity": 0.731575, "balance": 1.542648, "dry_up": 0.525916, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061359, "annualized_volatility": 0.321731, "from_high_reference": -0.122021, "from_low_reference": 0.270431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.25, "fair_value_reference": 78.866543, "structural_low": 67.300003, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019259, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.014074, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.084884, "worst_return": -0.183529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146667, "worst_return": -0.195178, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.028555, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.118687, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.131472, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.160711, "energy": 31.673228, "activity_lines": [ 80.986668, 79.716364, 77.279524, 77.853119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 81.599998, "volume": 297073, "typical_volume": 734556.5, "trend": 79.463334, "fair_value": 78.594265, "relative_strength": -7.664278, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.285986, "energy": 20.867445, "activity_lines": [ 81.073334, 80.318182, 77.805715, 77.982796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.900002, "volume": 333972, "typical_volume": 708907.15, "trend": 79.356667, "fair_value": 78.669212, "relative_strength": -5.970572, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.814185, "energy": 31.254983, "activity_lines": [ 82.020001, 81.154546, 78.564286, 78.269033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.5, "volume": 227411, "typical_volume": 697176.15, "trend": 79.263334, "fair_value": 78.749543, "relative_strength": -7.05652, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.367018, "energy": 28.40425, "activity_lines": [ 82.733334, 81.778182, 79.247143, 78.536344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.5, "volume": 457714, "typical_volume": 625655.5, "trend": 79.25, "fair_value": 78.866543, "relative_strength": -5.989138, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.290989, "energy": 43.06812, "activity_lines": [ 83.746667, 82.654546, 80.062857, 78.93871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }