{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f30a7b61-286b-4bea-9812-5281d4edf31e",
    "symbol": "VJPA",
    "name": "Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF USD Accumulation",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 61.162,
    "architecture_energy": 34.534,
    "architecture_maturity": 59.395,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.962,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.28,
        "rotation_up": 38.7,
        "upward_expansion": 66.06,
        "deceleration": 85.44,
        "rotation_down": 27.06,
        "downward_expansion": 16.06
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        41.755667,
        41.816091,
        41.240286,
        40.529828
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 42.860001,
    "trend_reference": 39.6725,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.080345,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 32.414583,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322244,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -1.827733,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.114549,
    "excess_performance": -0.056342,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.080345,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056534,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.322244,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036487,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.018277,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.025862,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.114549,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.636952,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 65537,
      "relative_activity": 1.028274,
      "balance": 2.636952,
      "dry_up": 1.206198,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029416,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.191701,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002676,
      "from_low_reference": 0.300956
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 39.6725,
      "fair_value_reference": 32.414583,
      "structural_low": 35.919998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.013479,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001873,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.085023,
        "worst_return": -0.034721,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.014219,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025453,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.153889,
        "worst_return": -0.072088,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.015874,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.018528,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.108387,
        "worst_return": -0.084589,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.016991,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.053742,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.27269,
        "worst_return": -0.127167,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.088,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.014026,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.035375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03008,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.036417,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0009,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.075157,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013583,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012662,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.083903,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.079508,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044518,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.060274,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 15305.05,
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        "trend": 36.764667,
        "fair_value": 31.073269,
        "relative_strength": -0.425154,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.069396,
        "energy": 37.654556,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 36.984,
        "fair_value": 31.164519,
        "relative_strength": 0.758469,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 67.965149,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 65812.25,
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        "relative_strength": 1.579611,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 61.357099,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 66642.15,
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        "relative_strength": 1.31881,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 67.756776,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 66791.65,
        "trend": 37.549667,
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        "relative_strength": 1.105102,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 1.465884,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 64435.5,
        "trend": 37.9285,
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        "relative_strength": -1.706038,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 60754.25,
        "trend": 38.4315,
        "fair_value": 31.822692,
        "relative_strength": 1.051286,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.676823,
        "energy": 79.640592,
        "activity_lines": [
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          40.07319,
          39.436667
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 42.470001,
        "volume": 6747,
        "typical_volume": 59224.4,
        "trend": 38.670333,
        "fair_value": 31.926474,
        "relative_strength": -0.850701,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.410845,
        "energy": 84.815513,
        "activity_lines": [
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          39.697215
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 42.48,
        "volume": 165360,
        "typical_volume": 65814.7,
        "trend": 38.9115,
        "fair_value": 32.031859,
        "relative_strength": -0.55002,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.448025,
        "energy": 82.728703,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.328667,
          41.810909,
          40.632571,
          39.943
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 40.549999,
        "volume": 69901,
        "typical_volume": 63831.6,
        "trend": 39.089,
        "fair_value": 32.123173,
        "relative_strength": -3.786182,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.551498,
        "energy": 50.037192,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.794,
          41.664273,
          40.710429,
          40.04871
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 41.384998,
        "volume": 65547,
        "typical_volume": 62321.4,
        "trend": 39.292167,
        "fair_value": 32.214135,
        "relative_strength": -1.700531,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.108278,
        "energy": 38.888523,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.566333,
          41.660727,
          40.866405,
          40.196839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 41.075001,
        "volume": 106523,
        "typical_volume": 63529.3,
        "trend": 39.4815,
        "fair_value": 32.30843,
        "relative_strength": -3.121234,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.092028,
        "energy": 26.743908,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.333,
          41.581,
          40.976928,
          40.31186
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.860001,
        "volume": 65537,
        "typical_volume": 63734.95,
        "trend": 39.6725,
        "fair_value": 32.414583,
        "relative_strength": -1.827733,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.16248,
        "energy": 34.534226,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.755667,
          41.816091,
          41.240286,
          40.529828
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}