{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f311f105-2205-4d2f-a736-b337e7b6bb46", "symbol": "688630", "name": "Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.393, "architecture_energy": 25.403, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.06, "rotation_up": 26.41, "upward_expansion": 58.38, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 34.17, "downward_expansion": 22.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 389.789996, 417.498723, 384.067231, 340.760075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 426.98999, "trend_reference": 284.972582, "distance_from_trend": 0.498355, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 118.003293, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.618458, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 96.347953, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.391695, "excess_performance": 1.434899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.498355, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.556442, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.618458, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.774342, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.96348, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250482, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.391695, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.428083, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35361701, "relative_activity": 1.311537, "balance": 1.428083, "dry_up": 1.353687, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208034, "annualized_volatility": 0.906666, "from_high_reference": -0.230579, "from_low_reference": 3.039639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 284.972582, "fair_value_reference": 118.003293, "structural_low": 160.858735, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.185189, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.170701, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.348643, "worst_return": -0.217192, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.355587, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.308539, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.355587, "worst_return": 0.355587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.9087, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.867729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.9087, "worst_return": 0.9087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 112.097611, "relative_strength": 87.341737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.450519, "energy": 60.243233, "activity_lines": [ 443.858661, 430.538904, 364.520238, 317.690997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 408.799988, "volume": 39561056, "typical_volume": 25719045.1, "trend": 268.844043, "fair_value": 114.232291, "relative_strength": 103.679211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.486586, "energy": 40.618751, "activity_lines": [ 424.452659, 432.137084, 374.044936, 327.330119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 325.230011, "volume": 39235155, "typical_volume": 26478591.1, "trend": 275.211648, "fair_value": 115.770363, "relative_strength": 57.909605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.255022, "energy": 24.70809, "activity_lines": [ 383.403333, 415.811815, 374.55899, 330.967924 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 426.98999, "volume": 35361701, "typical_volume": 26962033.4, "trend": 284.972582, "fair_value": 118.003293, "relative_strength": 96.347953, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.39281, "energy": 25.402765, "activity_lines": [ 389.789996, 417.498723, 384.067231, 340.760075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }