{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f31558dd-cef6-431f-aa2b-ed7e606f94c7", "symbol": "SKE", "name": "Sakol Energy Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.96, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.771, "architecture_energy": 11.512, "architecture_maturity": 35.78, "architecture_confidence": 54.414, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.09, "rotation_up": 24.47, "upward_expansion": 41.86, "deceleration": 80.2, "rotation_down": 28.11, "downward_expansion": 28.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.178667, 0.181091, 0.182286, 0.179548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.18, "trend_reference": 0.172333, "distance_from_trend": 0.044487, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.303846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.407595, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.040449, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.384615, "excess_performance": 0.19229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044487, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027833, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.407595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006558, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.384615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.163059, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2134200, "relative_activity": 0.372878, "balance": 0.163059, "dry_up": 0.70862, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106838, "annualized_volatility": 0.68128, "from_high_reference": -0.28, "from_low_reference": 0.384615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.172333, "fair_value_reference": 0.303846, "structural_low": 0.13, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.03, "positive_rate": 0.105263, "directional_follow_through": 0.105263, "median_excess_return": -0.030944, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.095238, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.164384, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.103809, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.25641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.168579, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.243214, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": -0.054545, "worst_return": -0.538462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.301729, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.273149, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.252427, "worst_return": -0.432432, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-03-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082192, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179487, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.30303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.51, "volume": 3387800, "typical_volume": 2658200.0, "trend": 0.612333, "fair_value": 0.803726, "relative_strength": -20.241742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"typical_volume": 5887960.0, "trend": 0.169333, "fair_value": 0.310962, "relative_strength": -19.008561, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.188622, "energy": 24.319119, "activity_lines": [ 0.185333, 0.183636, 0.183905, 0.178323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.17, "volume": 3794100, "typical_volume": 5970655.0, "trend": 0.170333, "fair_value": 0.308526, "relative_strength": -22.788221, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.83555, "energy": 6.867658, "activity_lines": [ 0.18, 0.181455, 0.182857, 0.178366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.18, "volume": 454600, "typical_volume": 5845830.0, "trend": 0.171333, "fair_value": 0.306026, "relative_strength": -16.386593, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.434578, "energy": 10.209005, "activity_lines": [ 0.178667, 0.181273, 0.182667, 0.178989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.18, "volume": 2134200, "typical_volume": 5723590.0, "trend": 0.172333, "fair_value": 0.303846, "relative_strength": -15.040449, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.771087, "energy": 11.511627, "activity_lines": [ 0.178667, 0.181091, 0.182286, 0.179548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }