{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f31683c8-b9b4-4649-ab3c-622237019435", "symbol": "HIQ", "name": "HITIQ Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.692, "architecture_energy": 39.738, "architecture_maturity": 91.073, "architecture_confidence": 86.068, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.01, "rotation_up": 23.68, "upward_expansion": 5.29, "deceleration": 58.41, "rotation_down": 49.46, "downward_expansion": 78.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0076, 0.008, 0.009119, 0.010434 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.008, "trend_reference": 0.012267, "distance_from_trend": -0.347826, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.021779, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.632671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.979414, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.529412, "excess_performance": -0.593117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.347826, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263263, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.632671, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.519794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176246, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.529412, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.272997, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15752916, "relative_activity": 3.408033, "balance": 1.272997, "dry_up": 2.19609, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.365385, "annualized_volatility": 1.192514, "from_high_reference": -0.8, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.012267, "fair_value_reference": 0.021779, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.021309, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.064182, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058888, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.647059, "worst_return": -0.185185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.259259, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.314678, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.384615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.470588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", 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0.011873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.009, "volume": 7799473, "typical_volume": 3115593.3, "trend": 0.01355, "fair_value": 0.022112, "relative_strength": -45.75298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.682813, "energy": 45.973462, "activity_lines": [ 0.0084, 0.008873, 0.010229, 0.011556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.008, "volume": 2372527, "typical_volume": 3137394.1, "trend": 0.013167, "fair_value": 0.022035, "relative_strength": -51.006725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.213119, "energy": 42.897714, "activity_lines": [ 0.008267, 0.008655, 0.009876, 0.011198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 14678946, "typical_volume": 3866009.15, "trend": 0.012667, "fair_value": 0.021894, "relative_strength": -63.42866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.120502, "energy": 48.399965, "activity_lines": [ 0.007533, 0.008109, 0.009381, 0.010735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.008, "volume": 15752916, "typical_volume": 4622289.9, "trend": 0.012267, "fair_value": 0.021779, "relative_strength": -51.979414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.691624, "energy": 39.738007, "activity_lines": [ 0.0076, 0.008, 0.009119, 0.010434 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }