{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f329c2a7-7594-4858-ab75-86de296ddb93", "symbol": "FSMD", "name": "FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST SMALL MID MULTIFACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.208, "architecture_energy": 37.347, "architecture_maturity": 52.787, "architecture_confidence": 85.116, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.49, "rotation_up": 36.04, "upward_expansion": 61.73, "deceleration": 90.76, "rotation_down": 26.41, "downward_expansion": 16.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.381, 51.408051, 50.688836, 49.598169 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.38, "trend_reference": 48.311825, "distance_from_trend": 0.084207, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.375047, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297336, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.092608, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110419, "excess_performance": -0.015206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084207, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297336, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014524, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010926, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110419, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.118494, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 471762, "relative_activity": 0.821754, "balance": 1.118494, "dry_up": 0.80479, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031989, "annualized_volatility": 0.147973, "from_high_reference": -0.011698, "from_low_reference": 0.273342 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.311825, "fair_value_reference": 40.375047, "structural_low": 43.159399, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009128, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.006546, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.118621, "worst_return": -0.059495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043985, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.00397, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189379, "worst_return": -0.139879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.097537, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02792, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.140889, "worst_return": 0.029883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.612974, "energy": 51.595572, "activity_lines": [ 51.418667, 51.166281, 49.975693, 48.924356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.915, "volume": 480561, "typical_volume": 601408.25, "trend": 47.859067, "fair_value": 40.134042, "relative_strength": 2.944335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.826672, "energy": 38.90433, "activity_lines": [ 51.198333, 51.205762, 50.2034, 49.134774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.74, "volume": 425989, "typical_volume": 578083.25, "trend": 48.078301, "fair_value": 40.248581, "relative_strength": 1.428582, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.033718, "energy": 31.472144, "activity_lines": [ 50.963333, 51.168828, 50.384273, 49.32064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.38, "volume": 471762, "typical_volume": 574091.5, "trend": 48.311825, "fair_value": 40.375047, "relative_strength": 1.092608, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.208084, "energy": 37.3475, "activity_lines": [ 51.381, 51.408051, 50.688836, 49.598169 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }